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Assortative mating can help adaptation of flowering time to a changing climate: insights from a polygenic model.
Journal of Evolutionary Biology ( IF 2.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-01 , DOI: 10.1111/jeb.13786
Claire Godineau 1 , Ophélie Ronce 1, 2 , Céline Devaux 1
Affiliation  

Several empirical studies report fast evolutionary changes in flowering time in response to contemporary climate change. Flowering time is a polygenic trait under assortative mating, since flowering time of mates must overlap. Here we test whether assortative mating, compared to random mating, can help better track a changing climate. For each mating pattern, our individual-based model simulates a population evolving in a climate characterized by stabilizing selection around an optimal flowering time, which can change directionally and/or fluctuate. We also derive new analytical predictions from a quantitative genetics model for the expected genetic variance at equilibrium, and its components, the lag of the population to the optimum, and the population mean fitness. We compare these predictions between assortative and random mating, and to our simulation results. Assortative mating, compared to random mating, has antagonistic effects on genetic variance: it generates positive associations among similar allelic effects, which inflates the genetic variance, but it decreases genetic polymorphism, which depresses the genetic variance. In a stationary environment with substantial stabilizing selection, assortative mating affects little the genetic variance compared to random mating. In a changing climate, assortative mating however increases genetic variance compared to random mating, which diminishes the lag of the population to the optimum, and in most scenarios translates into a fitness advantage relative to random mating. The magnitude of this fitness advantage depends on the extent to which genetic variance limits adaptation, being larger for faster environmental changes and weaker stabilizing selection.

中文翻译:

分类交配可以帮助使开花时间适应不断变化的气候:来自多基因模型的见解。

几项实证研究报告说,响应现代气候变化,开花时间快速演变。开花时间是分类交配下的一种多基因性状,因为配偶的开花时间必须重叠。在这里,我们测试与随机交配相比,交配交配是否可以更好地跟踪气候变化。对于每种交配模式,我们的基于个体的模型都模拟了一种气候变化的种群,其特征是在最佳开花时间附近稳定选择,该开花时间可以有方向地变化和/或波动。我们还从定量遗传模型中获得了平衡时的预期遗传方差及其组成部分,总体滞后于最优状态以及总体均值适应性的新的分析预测。我们在分类交配和随机交配之间比较了这些预测,以及我们的仿真结果。与随机交配相比,分类交配对遗传变异具有拮抗作用:它在相似的等位基因效应之间产生正向关联,这会加剧遗传变异,但会降低遗传多态性,从而抑制遗传变异。在稳定选择的稳定环境中,与随机交配相比,分类交配对遗传变异的影响很小。然而,在不断变化的气候中,与随机交配相比,随机交配会增加遗传变异,从而减少了种群滞后于最佳交配的时间,并且在大多数情况下,相对于随机交配而言,这具有一定的健身优势。这种适应性优势的大小取决于遗传差异限制适应的程度,
更新日期:2021-04-01
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