Since 2015, consumer loans have been rising fast in France, Germany, Spain and Italy. This article aims to provide broad evidence of the differences across countries in light of the recent consumer credit growth, exploring demand and supply factors typically related to this type of loan, and assessing the building up of financial risks. The expansion was connected in all countries with the increasing credit demand, specifically for consumer durables, and – for Italy and Spain, which experienced stronger credit tightening during the past crises – also with the easing of supply conditions. Risks stemming from the growth of consumer credit are mitigated by its lower incidence, compared with mortgages, on households’ total debt and income; exposure to interest rate risk is also decreasing owing to the high share of fixed-rate contracts. There is wide risk heterogeneity across countries, with Italy and Spain having the highest share of delinquent households (even for fewer than 90 days). In Italy, however, debt is increasingly concentrated among more affluent households, which are better able to withstand negative economic shocks. This trend is sustaining the drop in the ratio of new non-performing consumer loans.

2015年以来，法国、德国、西班牙和意大利的消费贷款快速增长。本文旨在根据近期消费信贷增长提供各国差异的广泛证据，探索与此类贷款相关的典型供需因素，并评估金融风险的累积。所有国家的扩张都与信贷需求的增加有关，特别是对耐用消费品的信贷需求增加，而意大利和西班牙在过去的危机中经历了更严重的信贷紧缩，也与供应条件的放松有关。与抵押贷款相比，消费信贷对家庭总债务和收入的影响较低，从而减轻了消费信贷增长带来的风险；由于固定利率合同的比例很高，利率风险敞口也在减少。各国之间存在广泛的风险异质性，意大利和西班牙的拖欠家庭比例最高（即使少于 90 天）。然而，在意大利，债务越来越集中在更富裕的家庭中，这些家庭能够更好地承受负面经济冲击。这一趋势正在维持该比率的下降新增不良消费贷款。