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Random variation and systematic biases in probability estimation
Cognitive Psychology ( IF 2.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-12-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.cogpsych.2020.101306
Rita Howe 1 , Fintan Costello 1
Affiliation  

A number of recent theories have suggested that the various systematic biases and fallacies seen in people's probabilistic reasoning may arise purely as a consequence of random variation in the reasoning process. The underlying argument, in these theories, is that random variation has systematic regressive effects, so producing the observed patterns of bias. These theories typically take this random variation as a given, and assume that the degree of random variation in probabilistic reasoning is sufficiently large to account for observed patterns of fallacy and bias; there has been very little research directly examining the character of random variation in people's probabilistic judgement. We describe 4 experiments investigating the degree, level, and characteristic properties of random variation in people's probability judgement. We show that the degree of variance is easily large enough to account for the occurrence of two central fallacies in probabilistic reasoning (the conjunction fallacy and the disjunction fallacy), and that level of variance is a reliable predictor of the occurrence of these fallacies. We also show that random variance in people's probabilistic judgement follows a particular mathematical model from frequentist probability theory: the binomial proportion distribution. This result supports a model in which people reason about probabilities in a way that follows frequentist probability theory but is subject to random variation or noise.

中文翻译:

概率估计中的随机变异和系统偏差

最近的一些理论表明,人们在概率推理中看到的各种系统性偏见和谬误可能纯粹是推理过程中随机变化的结果。在这些理论中,潜在的论点是随机变化具有系统性回归效应,因此产生了观察到的偏差模式。这些理论通常将这种随机变化视为给定,并假设概率推理中的随机变化程度足以解释观察到的谬误和偏见模式;很少有研究直接检验人们概率判断中随机变化的特征。我们描述了 4 个实验,研究了人们概率判断中随机变化的程度、水平和特征。我们表明,方差程度很容易大到足以解释概率推理中两个中心谬误(合取谬误和析取谬误)的发生,并且该方差水平是这些谬误发生的可靠预测指标。我们还表明,人们概率判断中的随机方差遵循频率论概率论中的一个特定数学模型:二项式比例分布。该结果支持一个模型,在该模型中,人们以遵循频率论概率论的方式推理概率,但会受到随机变化或噪声的影响。并且这种方差水平是这些谬误发生的可靠预测指标。我们还表明,人们概率判断中的随机方差遵循频率论概率论中的一个特定数学模型:二项式比例分布。该结果支持一个模型,在该模型中,人们以遵循频率论概率论的方式推理概率,但会受到随机变化或噪声的影响。并且这种方差水平是这些谬误发生的可靠预测指标。我们还表明,人们概率判断中的随机方差遵循频率论概率论中的一个特定数学模型:二项式比例分布。该结果支持一个模型,在该模型中,人们以遵循频率论概率论的方式推理概率,但会受到随机变化或噪声的影响。
更新日期:2020-12-01
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