This study conducts a robust assessment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 to capture the observed temperature trends and variability at global and regional scales. The warming rate in the second half of the twentieth century (0.19°C/decade) is twice as large as in the full analysis period (1901–2014; 0.10°C/decade). Multidecadal climate variability results in considerable uncertainties in the regional temperature trend, but the multidecadal variability does not represent a statistically significant trend. Globally, the spatial pattern of trends is most similar among ensemble members of the same model, then among climate models, and the least similar between models and observations. The structural uncertainty and internal variability of climate models provide a range of temperature trends that generally encompass the regional scale observations. Some single model large ensembles also have variability comparable to the multimodel large ensemble, encompassing the regional scale observations.

中文翻译：

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CMIP6多模型集合的长期温度趋势和变异性评估

这项研究对耦合模型比较项目第6阶段进行了稳健的评估，以捕获在全球和区域范围内观察到的温度趋势和变异性。二十世纪下半叶的升温速率（0.19°C /十年）是整个分析时期（1901-2014年； 0.10°C /十年）的两倍。多年代际气候变率导致区域温度趋势存在相当大的不确定性，但多年代际变率并不代表统计学上的显着趋势。在全球范围内，趋势的空间模式在同一模型的集合成员之间最为相似，然后在气候模型之间最为相似，而模型与观测值之间的相似性则最小。气候模型的结构不确定性和内部变异性提供了一系列温度趋势，通常涵盖了区域尺度的观测。一些单模型大型合奏还具有与多模型大型合奏相当的变异性，涵盖了区域范围的观测结果。