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Complex tsunami hazards in eastern Indonesia from seismic and non-seismic sources: Deterministic modelling based on historical and modern data
Geoscience Letters ( IF 4 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-06 , DOI: 10.1186/s40562-021-00190-y
Ignatius R. Pranantyo , Mohammad Heidarzadeh , Phil R. Cummins

Eastern Indonesia is one of the world’s most complex regions in terms of tsunami hazards, as it accommodates numerous seismic and non-seismic tsunami sources with a history of deadly tsunamis. This study is an effort to enhance tsunami hazard knowledge in eastern Indonesia where limited data and analyses exist. We provide a brief understanding of eastern Indonesia’s tsunami hazards by modelling selected deterministic tsunami scenarios from tectonic, submarine mass failure (SMF), and volcanic sources. To our knowledge, this is the first time that tsunami hazards modelling from such diverse sources in Indonesia has been performed. Our methodology is a deterministic tsunami hazard analysis considering credible tsunami sources from historical and contemporary data, modelling them using state-of-the-art simulation tools. We modelled two Mw7.8 tsunamigenic earthquake scenarios on the Flores back-arc thrust, one rupturing the basal fault (FBT-BF) and the other rupturing the splay fault (FBT-SF), showing that the two scenarios produce maximum tsunami amplitudes of $$\sim$$ 5.3 m and $$\sim$$ 4.2 m, respectively, which are comparable to the deadly 1992 Flores tsunami. We modelled potential SMF-generated tsunamis in the Makassar Strait with SMF volumes of 5 $$\hbox {km}^3$$ and 225 $$\hbox {km}^3$$ which yielded maximum tsunami heights of $$\sim$$ 1.1 m and $$\sim$$ 4.3 m along the eastern coast of Kalimantan Island and $$\sim$$ 2.9 m and $$\sim$$ 11.1 m along the west shore of Sulawesi Island, respectively. The 1871 Ruang volcanic tsunami is studied through existing historical documents and a source model is proposed comprising a flank collapse with volume of $$0.10\ \mathrm{km}^3$$ . Such a source model successfully reproduced the 25 m runup reported in a historical account.

中文翻译:

来自地震和非地震来源的印尼东部海啸的复杂危害:基于历史和现代数据的确定性模型

就海啸危害而言,印度尼西亚东部是世界上最复杂的地区之一,因为它可容纳众多具有致命海啸历史的地震和非地震海啸源。这项研究是一项旨在增强印度尼西亚东部海啸灾害知识的工作,那里的数据和分析有限。通过对来自构造,海底质量破坏(SMF)和火山源的选定的确定性海啸情景进行建模,我们可以对印度尼西亚东部的海啸危害进行简要了解。据我们所知,这是首次在印度尼西亚进行来自不同来源的海啸危害建模。我们的方法是确定性的海啸危害分析,考虑到来自历史和现代数据的可靠海啸来源,并使用最新的模拟工具对其进行建模。我们为两个Mw7建模。Flores弧后推力发生的8种海啸地震场景,一种破坏了基底断层(FBT-BF),另一种破坏了扇状断层(FBT-SF),表明这两种情况产生的最大海啸振幅为$$ \ sim $分别为530万美元和420万美元,相当于致命的1992年弗洛雷斯海啸。我们对孟加锡海峡潜在的由SMF产生的海啸进行了建模,SMF量为5 $$ \ hbox {km} ^ 3 $$和225 $$ \ hbox {km} ^ 3 $$,产生的最大海啸高度为$$ \ sim加里曼丹岛东海岸分别为110万美元和430万美元,苏拉威西岛西海岸为290万美元和1110万美元。通过现有的历史文献对1871年鲁昂火山海啸进行了研究,并提出了一个源模型,该模型包括侧面崩塌,体积为$ 0.10 \ \ mathrm {km} ^ 3 $$。
更新日期:2021-05-06
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