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Evaluation of the effects of transplanting date shifts and drainage outlet raising management practices in paddy farming regions under future climates using coupled APEX-Paddy and SWAT models
Paddy and Water Environment ( IF 2.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-06 , DOI: 10.1007/s10333-021-00854-7
Dong-Hyeon Kim , Hakkwan Kim , Taeil Jang

Predicting adaptation and the response of agricultural water resources to climate change is a challenging. As changes in future climate will change agricultural environments, agricultural conservation practice (ACP) assessments are needed as a response strategy to reduce water pollution and preserve crop yield in agricultural watersheds. This study used coupled SWAT and APEX-Paddy models (SWAPX) to evaluate conservation practices for hydrology, water quality, and crop yield in paddy-dominated watersheds for three future periods (2020s, 2030s, and 2040s). We estimated future hydrology and water quality using the well-validated SWAPX model and RCP 8.5 scenario for 10 general circulation models (GCMs) and evaluated the ability of transplanting date shift (TDS) and drainage outlet raising (DOR) management strategies to reduce runoff and total nitrogen (T-N) load and preserve rice yield. Runoff in future climate scenarios was higher than the baseline (2008–2019), and the T-N load was predicted to increase rapidly in the near future and then gradually decrease until the 2040s (2041–2049). The R40 scenario (combined TDS and DOR), which was the most effective, reduced runoff by 9.2%, T-N load by 13.6%, and water productivity by 47.7% compared with the CB (baseline) scenario. When the ACPs were applied to the entire paddy area in the watershed, the reduction rates of runoff and T-N load were 4.1% and 7.4%, respectively. This result demonstrates the effectiveness of ACPs on a spatial–temporal scale and implies that ACP efficiency, applied area, and placement in target regions are important to consider when developing plans to improve water quality and crop yields at the watershed scale.



中文翻译:

使用APEX-Paddy和SWAT耦合模型评估水稻田在未来气候下的移栽日期移动和排水口增加管理措施的效果

预测适应性和农业水资源对气候变化的响应是一项挑战。由于未来气候的变化将改变农业环境,因此需要农业保护实践(ACP)评估作为减少水污染和保护农业流域作物产量的应对策略。这项研究使用SWAT和APEX-Paddy耦合模型(SWAPX)评估了三个未来时期(2020年,2030年代和2040年代)水田,水田和以稻田为主的流域的作物产量的保护措施。我们使用经过充分验证的SWAPX模型和RCP 8估算了未来的水文学和水质。针对10个通用循环模型(GCM)的5种方案,并评估了移植日期变更(TDS)和排水口提高(DOR)管理策略减少径流和总氮(TN)负荷并保持水稻产量的能力。未来气候情景中的径流量高于基线(2008-2019年),预计TN负荷在不久的将来会迅速增加,然后逐渐减少,直到2040年代(2041-2049年)。与CB(基准)方案相比,最有效的R40方案(TDS和DOR组合)减少了9.2%的径流量,TN负荷减少了13.6%,水生产率降低了47.7%。当将ACP应用于流域的整个稻田时,径流和TN负荷的减少率分别为4.1%和7.4%。

更新日期:2021-05-06
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