This paper is one of the latest attempts to observe and explain the relationship between the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) and GDP growth. This new approach uses the Diebold and Yilmaz (2012, 2009) spillover methodology by combining the feedback relationship and the time-varying (dynamic) aspect of that same relationship. The empirical analysis is based on quarterly data over different periods in the European Union (EU) (as a whole) and in ten Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The main results indicate that the spillovers of shocks between ESI and GDP growth are time-varying for all observed countries, with increasing values of total spillovers in the last recession and afterwards. The direction and strength of spillover effects between economic sentiment and GDP growth are different for the analysed CEE countries. The results are robust with respect to changing the rolling window length, additional Granger causality testing and rolling correlation coefficients.

本文是观察和解释经济景气指数 (ESI) 与 GDP 增长之间关系的最新尝试之一。这种新方法结合了反馈关系和同一关系的时变（动态）方面，使用了 Diebold 和 Yilmaz（2012 年，2009 年）溢出方法。实证分析基于欧盟 (EU)（整体）和十个中东欧 (CEE) 国家不同时期的季度数据。主要结果表明，对于所有观察到的国家，ESI 和 GDP 增长之间的冲击溢出是随时间变化的，在上次衰退和之后的总溢出值增加。所分析的中东欧国家，经济情绪与 GDP 增长之间溢出效应的方向和强度各不相同。