Warming on Earth’s Third Pole is leading to rapid loss of ice and the formation and expansion of glacial lakes, posing a severe threat to downstream communities. Here we provide a holistic assessment of past evolution, present state and modelled future change of glacial lakes and related glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) risk across the Third Pole. We show that the highest GLOF risk is at present centred in the eastern Himalaya, where the current risk level is at least twice that in adjacent regions. In the future, GLOF risk will potentially almost triple as a consequence of further lake development, and additional hotspots will emerge to the west, including within transboundary regions. With apparent increases in GLOF risk already anticipated by the mid-twenty-first century in some regions, the results highlight the urgent need for forward-looking, collaborative, long-term approaches to mitigate future impacts and enhance sustainable development across the Third Pole.

地球第三极的变暖正在导致冰的迅速流失以及冰川湖的形成和扩张，对下游社区构成严重威胁。在这里，我们对冰川湖的过去演变、现状和模拟的未来变化以及跨第三极的相关冰川湖溃决洪水 (GLOF) 风险进行了整体评估。我们表明，目前最高的 GLOF 风险集中在喜马拉雅东部，那里目前的风险水平至少是邻近地区的两倍。未来，由于湖泊的进一步开发，GLOF 风险可能会增加近三倍，西部将出现更多热点，包括跨界区域内。预计到 21 世纪中叶，某些地区的 GLOF 风险会明显增加，