Travel restrictions and physical distancing have been implemented across the world to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, but studies are needed to understand their effectiveness across regions and time. Based on the population mobility metrics derived from mobile phone geolocation data across 135 countries or territories during the first wave of the pandemic in 2020, we built a metapopulation epidemiological model to measure the effect of travel and contact restrictions on containing COVID-19 outbreaks across regions. We found that if these interventions had not been deployed, the cumulative number of cases could have shown a 97-fold (interquartile range 79–116) increase, as of May 31, 2020. However, their effectiveness depended upon the timing, duration, and intensity of the interventions, with variations in case severity seen across populations, regions, and seasons. Additionally, before effective vaccines are widely available and herd immunity is achieved, our results emphasize that a certain degree of physical distancing at the relaxation of the intervention stage will likely be needed to avoid rapid resurgences and subsequent lockdowns.

为了缓解 2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 大流行，世界各地已经实施了旅行限制和社交距离措施，但需要进行研究以了解它们在不同地区和时间的有效性。根据 2020 年第一波大流行期间 135 个国家或地区的手机地理定位数据得出的人口流动指标，我们构建了一个元人口流行病学模型，以衡量旅行和接触限制对遏制跨地区 COVID-19 爆发的影响. 我们发现，如果没有部署这些干预措施，截至 2020 年 5 月 31 日，累计病例数可能会增加 97 倍（四分位距为 79-116）。然而，其有效性取决于时间、持续时间、和干预的强度，不同人群、地区和季节的病例严重程度不同。此外，在广泛使用有效疫苗并实现群体免疫之前，我们的结果强调，可能需要在干预阶段放松时保持一定程度的物理距离，以避免迅速卷土重来和随后的封锁。