Abstract

Annual emissions from commercial aviation are forecast to reach 1820 MtCO₂ by mid-century, where carbon-neutral growth would demand near full substitution of petroleum-based aviation fuels with alternative jet fuels (AJF). However, the lack of dedicated policies and harmonized regulations has been perceived by stakeholders within the air transport community as the major contributor to shortfalls in global production over the past decade (<0.01% of the total aviation fuel demand). This research combines qualitative and mixed methods to study stakeholder perceptions by identifying and analyzing collective narratives on AJF (what matters, why does it and who says so) influencing the policy process at the ICAO. Q-method allowed to identify four metanarratives across participants, three of which have a distinctive weak sustainability approach to international aviation’s growth and one that is typically representative of a strong sustainability approach. This method also revealed a common ground of beliefs and understandings among stakeholders that could facilitate the discussion, negotiation and consensus of some of the multidimensional nuances inherent to the metanarratives analyzed. By classifying stakeholders’ salience based on their possession of power, legitimacy and urgency as dynamic and relational attributes to the ICAO, the authors suggest options to bring valuable expertise from low-salient and non-stakeholders into the formulation of policies on AJF through a variety of collaborative arrangements with medium and highly salient stakeholders. The role of AJF is further explored within the context of the COVID-19 outbreak, the flygskam movement in Europe, and the impending renewal of climate commitments under the Paris Agreement.

摘要

预计到本世纪中叶，商用航空的年排放量将达到 1820 MtCO ₂，​​在这种情况下，碳中和增长将需要用替代喷气燃料 (AJF) 几乎完全替代石油基航空燃料。然而，航空运输界的利益攸关方认为，缺乏专门的政策和统一的法规是过去十年全球产量短缺的主要原因（<0.01% 的航空燃料总需求）。这项研究结合了定性和混合方法，通过识别和分析关于 AJF 的集体叙述（什么重要、为什么重要以及是谁）来研究利益相关者的看法这么说）影响国际民航组织的政策进程。Q 方法允许在参与者中确定四种元叙事，其中三种对国际航空的增长具有独特的弱可持续性方法，另一种通常代表强可持续性方法。这种方法还揭示了利益相关者之间的共同信念和理解基础，可以促进对所分析的元叙事所固有的一些多维细微差别的讨论、谈判和共识。通过根据利益攸关方拥有的权力、合法性和紧迫性将利益攸关方的显着性分类为国际民航组织的动态和相关属性，作者提出了一些选择，通过与中等和高度重要利益相关者的各种合作安排，将来自低重要和非利益相关者的宝贵专业知识带入 AJF 政策的制定中。在 COVID-19 爆发的背景下，进一步探讨了 AJF 的作用，欧洲的flygskam运动，以及即将更新《巴黎协定》下的气候承诺。