In this paper, we investigate the international effects of euro rate forward guidance (FG) and compare them to spillovers from a conventional monetary policy shock (MP). We identify the forward guidance shock via a combination of zero and sign restrictions that use the relationship between expectations and observed data and additionally draw on insights from recent event studies using high-frequency data. To address potential time variation, we use a fully flexible approach that allows to handle both drifts in residual variances and the structural coefficients. Our results show that both shocks lead to considerable international effects on output growth, inflation and equity returns. Moreover, we find that effects are stronger during the period of the global financial crisis, which is particularly true for the FG shock. This implies that monetary policy is generally not hindered in affecting the real economy by the zero lower bound. Also, shocks to expectations can have real domestic effects with international consequences.

中文翻译：

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欧元区前瞻指引的国际影响*

在本文中，我们研究了欧元利率前瞻指引 (FG) 的国际影响，并将其与传统货币政策冲击 (MP) 的溢出效应进行了比较。我们通过零和符号限制的组合来识别前瞻性指导冲击，这些限制使用预期和观察到的数据之间的关系，并另外利用高频数据从最近的事件研究中汲取见解。为了解决潜在的时间变化，我们使用了一种完全灵活的方法，可以处理残差方差和结构系数的漂移。我们的结果表明，这两种冲击都会对产出增长、通货膨胀和股票回报产生相当大的国际影响。此外，我们发现在全球金融危机期间，这种影响更为强烈，尤其是金融危机。这意味着货币政策在影响实体经济方面一般不会受到零下限的阻碍。此外，对预期的冲击可能会产生具有国际后果的实际国内影响。