ABSTRACT

Research Question

The study asks whether bookmakers alter the closing betting odds on European football matches due to potential variation in team incentives to exert effort to win games based on position in the standings. Effort is a multidimensional concept and teams have many ways to alter effort supplied in a match. For example, the players included or left out of the starting 11, the tactics used in a specific match, substitutions made during a match, and other factors under team control, can be interpreted as changes in effort supplied.

Research Methods

OLS models explaining observed variation in betting odds are estimated for roughly 25,000 regular season football games in 8 top European domestic leagues from 2000–2001 through 2018–2019.

Results

Regression results indicate bookmakers alter betting odds on matches involving clubs in the middle of the domestic league standings that have no chance of qualifying for the Champions/Europa Leagues or being relegated. In other words, bookmakers and bettors believe these teams will not put forth maximum effort to compete in and win these matches. We find similar results for teams already assured of relegation and teams that already clinched the league championship.

Implications

Overall, the research contributes to literature analyzing the impact of incentives in sporting contests. As the world of professional sport and sports gambling become increasingly interconnected and integrated, the results of the study present opportunities not only for collaboration between the parties but also an increased understanding on the role league design has on individual match outcomes.

中文翻译：

---

欧洲足球的比赛激励、团队努力和博彩市场结果

摘要

研究问题

该研究询问博彩公司是否会改变欧洲足球比赛的收盘赔率，因为球队根据积分榜位置努力赢得比赛的动机可能存在差异。努力是一个多维的概念，球队有很多方法来改变比赛中提供的努力。例如，首发 11 人中包含或排除的球员、特定比赛中使用的战术、比赛期间进行的换人以及球队控制下的其他因素，都可以解释为提供的努力的变化。

研究方法

OLS 模型解释了观察到的投注赔率变化，对 2000-2001 年至 2018-2019 年欧洲 8 个顶级国内联赛的约 25,000 场常规赛季足球比赛进行了估计。

结果

回归结果表明，博彩公司改变了国内联赛排名中游、没有机会获得欧冠/欧联杯资格或降级的俱乐部的比赛投注赔率。换句话说，博彩公司和投注者认为这些球队不会付出最大的努力来参加并赢得这些比赛。我们发现已经确定降级的球队和已经获得联赛冠军的球队也有类似的结果。

影响

总体而言，该研究有助于分析体育比赛中激励措施的影响。随着职业体育和体育博彩的世界变得越来越相互关联和一体化，研究结果不仅为双方之间的合作提供了机会，而且还加深了对联赛设计对个人比赛结果的作用的理解。