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Determinants of farmers’ adaptation decisions under changing climate: the case of Fars province in Iran
Climatic Change ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-04 , DOI: 10.1007/s10584-021-03088-y
Samane Ghazali , Hossein Azadi , Alishir Kurban , Nicolae Ajtai , Marcin Pietrzykowski , Frank Witlox

Climate change is a serious concern for the agricultural sector given that this sector is highly dependent on climate conditions. Moreover, farmersʼ adaptation process under changing climate can be explained by the psychological factors and the incorporation of socio-environmental background. Therefore, the current study aimed at socio-cognitive perceptions and extended protection motivation theory (PMT) as the basis. This paper estimated the influence of cognitive factors on individualsʼ views and decisions regarding climate change adaptation. Data from this study came from a survey with 245 rural farmers in temperate mount areas of Fars province, Iran. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to estimate the different factors. Results showed that three core elements of the theory, namely, risk evaluation, adaptation evaluation, and maladaptation, were the statistically significant factors that could directly explain farmersʼ adaptation decisions to adopt appropriate coping strategies under changing climate. Findings also suggested that another structural factor, adaptation incentives, had a statistically significant influence on adaptation decision-making among farmers. The study proposed valuable insights on social discourse to promote adaptation. Findings strongly offered that social discourse should focus more strongly on confirming the truth and timeliness of information that individuals gained. Eventually, further investigations are necessary to conduct the measurement model in other cultures and geographical areas and see how socio-environmental components can influence risk evaluation and adaptation evaluation.



中文翻译:

气候变化下农民适应决定的决定因素:以伊朗法尔斯省为例

鉴于该部门高度依赖气候条件,因此气候变化是农业部门的严重关切。此外,农民在气候变化中的适应过程可以通过心理因素和社会环境背景的结合来解释。因此,当前的研究旨在以社会认知感知和扩展保护动机理论(PMT)为基础。本文估计了认知因素对个人关于气候变化适应的观点和决定的影响。这项研究的数据来自对伊朗Fars省温带山区的245名农民的调查。使用结构方程模型(SEM)来估计不同的因素。结果表明,该理论的三个核心要素是风险评估,适应性评估,和适应不良是统计学上显着的因素,可以直接解释农民在气候变化中采取适应性应对策略的适应决策。研究结果还表明,另一种结构性因素,即适应性激励措施,对农民间的适应性决策具有统计学上的显着影响。该研究提出了关于社会话语以促进适应的宝贵见解。研究结果强烈表明,社会话语应更加侧重于确认个人获得的信息的真实性和及时性。最终,有必要进行进一步的调查,以在其他文化和地理区域中进行衡量模型的研究,并了解社会环境因素如何影响风险评估和适应评估。是具有统计意义的重要因素,可以直接解释农民适应气候变化而采取适当应对策略的适应决策。研究结果还表明,另一种结构性因素,即适应性激励措施,对农民间的适应性决策具有统计学上的显着影响。该研究提出了关于社会话语以促进适应的宝贵见解。研究结果强烈表明,社会话语应更加侧重于确认个人获得的信息的真实性和及时性。最终,有必要进行进一步的调查,以在其他文化和地理区域中进行衡量模型的研究,并了解社会环境因素如何影响风险评估和适应评估。是具有统计意义的重要因素,可以直接解释农民适应气候变化而采取适当应对策略的适应决策。研究结果还表明,另一种结构性因素,即适应性激励措施,对农民间的适应性决策具有统计学上的显着影响。该研究提出了关于社会话语以促进适应的宝贵见解。研究结果强烈表明,社会话语应更加侧重于确认个人获得的信息的真实性和及时性。最终,有必要进行进一步的调查,以在其他文化和地理区域中进行衡量模型的研究,并了解社会环境因素如何影响风险评估和适应评估。

更新日期:2021-05-05
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