ABSTRACT

Applying a Markov switching model (MSM) to Las Vegas and Macao, this paper decomposes their business cycles of the casino hospitality industry into high and low growth states (HGS, LGS). Compared with Las Vegas, casino gaming in Macao is more volatile due to larger ups and downs in tourism flows, with HGS being far higher and LGS being much lower. Gaming hospitality in both travel destinations has a strong tendency to stay in HGS, but a low chance of recovering from LGS. While the two cities’ hospitality cycles are desirably asymmetric, Las Vegas’s cycle seems more favorable than Macao’s. Furthermore, in this paper, MSM is incorporated into a structural regression to identify determinants of hospitality cycles and generate policy implications useful for decision-making. It is observed that local hospitality cycles are affected by external business cycles and other demand- or supply-side factors. It is necessary for Las Vegas to strengthen promotional marketing and for Macao to pursue industrial diversification.

摘要

本文将马尔可夫转换模型 (MSM) 应用于拉斯维加斯和澳门，将其赌场酒店业的商业周期分解为高增长和低增长状态（HGS、LGS）。与拉斯维加斯相比，由于旅游流量起伏较大，澳门的赌场博彩波动更大，HGS 高得多，LGS 低得多。两个旅游目的地的博彩招待都倾向于留在 HGS，但从 LGS 中恢复的可能性很小。虽然这两个城市的好客周期不对称，但拉斯维加斯的周期似乎比澳门更有利。此外，在本文中，MSM 被纳入结构回归，以确定酒店周期的决定因素并产生对决策有用的政策影响。据观察，当地的酒店业周期受到外部商业周期和其他需求或供应方因素的影响。拉斯维加斯需要加强宣传营销，澳门需要产业多元化。