Using the survey data collected on informal sector MSMEs in Senegal, this study performs logit and propensity score matching (PSM) both to examine the determinants of access to credit, the decline in sales, and the business growth prospect in the 12 months following the COVID-19 pandemic and to assess the impact of credit on the MSMEs sales decline. We find that being a male manager and aged 46–55 years old reduces the likelihood of a decline in sales, whereas those who are 25–35 years present a high probability of experiencing a decrease in sales due to COVID-19. Being between 25 and 35 and 36–45 years old with a formalized MSME increases the probability of having access to loans. MSMEs that undertake manufacturing businesses appear more pessimistic about the future. More importantly, PSM findings show that MSMEs with loans have a higher average treatment effect of sales decline than their counterparts. This suggests that the greater the access to credit, the greater the difference in sales decline between MSMEs with credit and their counterpart without. The policy implications underline the importance of extended maturities and direct government financial support—not debt—to help the most affected informal sector MSMEs recover from the COVID-19 pandemic adverse effects.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19、塞内加尔非正规部门中小微企业的融资和销售下降

本研究利用塞内加尔非正规部门中小微企业收集的调查数据，进行逻辑和倾向得分匹配 (PSM)，以检验新冠疫情后 12 个月内获得信贷、销售额下降和业务增长前景的决定因素-19大流行病并评估信贷对中小微企业销售下降的影响。我们发现，年龄在 46-55 岁之间的男性经理减少了销售额下降的可能性，而 25-35 岁的男性经理则因 COVID-19 而出现销售额下降的可能性很高。正规中小微企业年龄在 25 岁至 35 岁以及 36 岁至 45 岁之间会增加获得贷款的可能性。从事制造业的中小微企业对未来显得更加悲观。更重要的是，PSM的研究结果表明，有贷款的中小微企业比同行有更高的销售下降平均处理效果。这表明，获得信贷的机会越多，拥有信贷的中小微企业与没有信贷的中小微企业之间的销售额下降差异就越大。这些政策影响凸显了延长期限和政府直接财政支持（而非债务）的重要性，以帮助受影响最严重的非正规部门中小微企业从 COVID-19 大流行的不利影响中恢复过来。