This article investigates and empirically tests the link between climate change and sovereign risk in Southeast Asia. Southeast Asian countries are among those most heavily affected by climate change. The number and intensity of extreme weather events in the region have been increasing markedly, causing severe social and economic damage. Southeast Asian economies are also exposed to gradual effects of global warming as well as transition risks stemming from policies aimed at mitigating climate change. To empirically examine the effect of climate change on the sovereign risk of Southeast Asian countries, we employ indices for vulnerability and resilience to climate change and estimate country-specific OLS models for six countries and a fixed effects panel using monthly data for the period 2002–2018. Both the country-specific and the panel results show that greater climate vulnerability appears to have a sizable positive effect on sovereign bond yields, while greater resilience to climate change has an offsetting effect, albeit to a lesser extent. A higher cost of debt holds back much-needed investment in public infrastructure and climate adaptation, increases the risk of debt sustainability problems, and diminishes the development prospects of Southeast Asian countries.

中文翻译：

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为台风做好准备：东南亚的气候变化和主权风险

本文调查并实证检验了东南亚气候变化与主权风险之间的联系。东南亚国家是受气候变化影响最严重的国家之一。该地区极端天气事件的数量和强度明显增加，给社会和经济造成严重破坏。东南亚经济体也面临全球变暖的逐渐影响以及旨在缓解气候变化的政策带来的转型风险。为了实证检验气候变化对东南亚国家主权风险的影响，我们采用了气候变化的脆弱性和恢复力指数，并使用 2002 年至 2002 年期间的月度数据估计了六个国家特定国家的 OLS 模型和一个固定效应面板。 2018 年。特定国家和小组的结果都表明，更大的气候脆弱性似乎对主权债券收益率产生了相当大的积极影响，而对气候变化的更大弹性具有抵消作用，尽管程度较小。较高的债务成本阻碍了对公共基础设施和气候适应的急需投资，增加了债务可持续性问题的风险，并削弱了东南亚国家的发展前景。