1. The management of biological invasions is a worldwide conservation priority. Unfortunately, decision-making on optimal invasion management can be impeded by lack of information about the biological processes that determine invader success (i.e. biological uncertainty) or by uncertainty about the effectiveness of candidate interventions (i.e. operational uncertainty). Concurrent assessment of both sources of uncertainty within the same framework can help to optimize control decisions.
2. Here, we present a Value of Information (VoI) framework to simultaneously analyse the effects of biological and operational uncertainties on management outcomes. We demonstrate this approach with a case study: minimizing the long-term population growth of musk thistle Carduus nutans, a widespread invasive plant, using several insects as biological control agents, including Trichosirocalus horridus, Rhinocyllus conicus and Urophora solstitialis.
3. The ranking of biocontrol agents was sensitive to differences in the target weed's demography and also to differences in the effectiveness of the different biocontrol agents. This finding suggests that accounting for both biological and operational uncertainties is valuable when making management recommendations for invasion control. Furthermore, our VoI analyses show that reduction of all uncertainties across all combinations of demographic model and biocontrol effectiveness explored in the current study would lead, on average, to a 15.6% reduction in musk thistle population growth rate. The specific growth reduction that would be observed in any instance would depend on how the uncertainties actually resolve. Resolving biological uncertainty (across demographic model combinations) or operational uncertainty (across biocontrol effectiveness combinations) alone would reduce expected population growth rate by 8.5% and 10.5% respectively.
4. Synthesis and applications. Our study demonstrates that intervention rank is determined both by biological processes in the targeted invasive populations and by intervention effectiveness. Ignoring either biological uncertainty or operational uncertainty may result in a suboptimal recommendation. Therefore, it is important to simultaneously acknowledge both sources of uncertainty during the decision-making process in invasion management. The framework presented here can accommodate diverse data sources and modelling approaches, and has wide applicability to guide invasive species management and conservation efforts.

中文翻译：

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权衡未知数：入侵管理中生物和操作不确定性的信息价值

1. 生物入侵的管理是全球保护的优先事项。不幸的是，由于缺乏有关决定入侵者成功的生物过程的信息（即生物不确定性）或候选干预措施的有效性的不确定性（即操作不确定性），可能会阻碍关于最佳入侵管理的决策。在同一框架内同时评估两种不确定性来源有助于优化控制决策。
2. 在这里，我们提出了一个信息价值 (VOI) 框架，以同时分析生物和运营不确定性对管理结果的影响。我们证明了案例研究这个方法：尽量减少麝香蓟人口增长长期垂花飞廉，一个普遍的入侵植物，使用几种昆虫生物控制剂，包括Trichosirocalus horridus，Rhinocyllus conicus和Urophora solstitialis。
3. 生物防治剂的等级对目标杂草人口统计学的差异以及不同生物防治剂有效性的差异敏感。这一发现表明，在为入侵控制提出管理建议时，同时考虑生物和操作的不确定性是有价值的。此外，我们的 VoI 分析表明，在当前研究中探索的人口模型和生物防治有效性的所有组合中所有不确定性的减少将导致麝香蓟种群增长率平均降低 15.6%。在任何情况下都会观察到的具体增长下降将取决于不确定性实际如何解决。
4. 合成与应用。我们的研究表明，干预等级由目标入侵人群的生物学过程和干预有效性决定。忽略生物不确定性或操作不确定性可能导致次优建议。因此，在入侵管理的决策过程中同时承认这两种不确定性来源很重要。这里介绍的框架可以容纳不同的数据源和建模方法，并且具有广泛的适用性，可以指导入侵物种管理和保护工作。