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Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets
Geophysical Research Letters ( IF 5.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-04 , DOI: 10.1029/2020gl091741
Antony J. Payne 1 , Sophie Nowicki 2, 3 , Ayako Abe‐Ouchi 4 , Cécile Agosta 5 , Patrick Alexander 6, 7 , Torsten Albrecht 8 , Xylar Asay‐Davis 9 , Andy Aschwanden 10 , Alice Barthel 9 , Thomas J. Bracegirdle 11 , Reinhard Calov 8 , Christopher Chambers 12 , Youngmin Choi 13 , Richard Cullather 2 , Joshua Cuzzone 14 , Christophe Dumas 5 , Tamsin L. Edwards 15 , Denis Felikson 2, 16 , Xavier Fettweis 17 , Benjamin K. Galton‐Fenzi 18, 19 , Heiko Goelzer 20, 21, 22 , Rupert Gladstone 23 , Nicholas R. Golledge 24 , Jonathan M. Gregory 25, 26 , Ralf Greve 11, 27 , Tore Hattermann 28, 29 , Matthew J. Hoffman 9 , Angelika Humbert 30, 31 , Philippe Huybrechts 32 , Nicolas C. Jourdain 33 , Thomas Kleiner 30 , Peter Kuipers Munneke 20 , Eric Larour 14 , Sebastien Le clec'h 32 , Victoria Lee 1 , Gunter Leguy 34 , William H. Lipscomb 34 , Christopher M. Little 35 , Daniel P. Lowry 36 , Mathieu Morlighem 13 , Isabel Nias 2, 37 , Frank Pattyn 21 , Tyler Pelle 13 , Stephen F. Price 9 , Aurélien Quiquet 5 , Ronja Reese 8 , Martin Rückamp 30 , Nicole‐Jeanne Schlegel 14 , Hélène Seroussi 14 , Andrew Shepherd 38 , Erika Simon 2 , Donald Slater 39 , Robin S. Smith 25 , Fiammetta Straneo 39 , Sainan Sun 21 , Lev Tarasov 40 , Luke D. Trusel 41 , Jonas Van Breedam 32 , Roderik Wal 20, 42 , Michiel Broeke 20 , Ricarda Winkelmann 8, 43 , Chen Zhao 19 , Tong Zhang 9 , Thomas Zwinger 44
Affiliation  

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

中文翻译:

来自格陵兰岛和南极冰盖的耦合模型比对项目第 5 和第 6 阶段情景下的未来海平面变化

格陵兰和南极冰盖(GrIS 和 AIS)对海平面贡献的预测依赖于从气候模型中获得的大气和海洋驱动因素。参与耦合模型比对项目第 6 阶段 (CMIP6) 的地球系统模型与之前的耦合模型比对项目第 5 阶段 (CMIP5) 工作相比,通常预测未来变暖幅度更大。在这里,我们使用四个 CMIP6 模型和精选的 CMIP5 模型来强制使用多个冰盖模型,作为 CMIP6 冰盖模型比对项目 (ISMIP6) 的一部分。我们发现 CMIP6 情景下冰盖模型集合在 2100 年的预计海平面贡献落在南极冰盖的 CMIP5 范围内,但对格陵兰岛则显着增加。由于地表熔化,CMIP6 模型中较温暖的大气会导致格陵兰岛质量损失增加。对于南极洲,CMIP6 强迫与 CMIP5 相似,降雪增加带来的质量增加抵消了海洋变暖造成的损失增加。
更新日期:2021-05-04
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