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Integrative Post-Event Impact Assessment Framework for volcanic eruptions: a disaster forensic investigation of the 2011-2012 eruption of the Cord´on Caulle volcano (Chile)
Frontiers in Earth Science ( IF 2.689 ) Pub Date : 2021-05-04 , DOI: 10.3389/feart.2021.645945
Lucia Dominguez, Costanza Bonadonna, Corine Frischknecht, Scira Menoni, Alexander Garcia

Understanding the complexity of future volcanic impacts that can be potentially induced by the large variability of volcanic hazards and the multiple dimensions of vulnerability of the increasingly interdependent and interconnected societies, requires an in-depth analysis of past events. A structured and inclusive post-event impact assessment framework is proposed and applied for the evaluation of damages and disruptions on critical infrastructures provoked by the eruption of the Cord´on Caulle volcano (Chile) in 2011-2012. This framework is built on the forensic analysis of disasters combined with the techniques of the root cause analysis that converge in a bow-tie tool. It consists of a fault tree connected to subsequent event trees to describe the causal order of impacts. Considering the physical and systemic dimensions of vulnerability, four orders of impact have been identified: i) the first order refers to the physical damage or the primary impact on a component of the critical infrastructure; ii) the second order refers to the loss of functionality in the system due to a physical damage on key components of the system; iii) the third order refers to the systemic impact due to the interdependency and connectivity among different critical infrastructures; and iv) a higher order is related to the consequences on the main economic sectors and to social disruption that can activate an overall damage to the economy of the country or countries affected. Our study in the Argentine Patagonia shows that the long-lasting impacts of the 2011-2012 Cord´on Caulle eruption are mostly due to a secondary hazard (i.e., wind remobilisation of ash), which exacerbated the primary impacts affecting significantly larger areas and for longer time with respect to primary tephra deposition. In addition, systemic vulnerability, particularly the intrinsic dependencies within and among systems, played a major role in the cascading impacts of the analysed communities.

中文翻译:

火山喷发的事后综合影响评估框架:2011-2012年科尔多昂卡勒火山(智利)火山爆发的法医调查

要了解未来的火山影响的复杂性,这可能是由火山灾害的巨大变异性以及日益相互依存和相互联系的社会的脆弱性的多个层面所引起的,因此需要对过去的事件进行深入的分析。提出了一个结构化,包容性的事后影响评估框架,并将其用于评估2011-2012年科尔多昂卡勒火山(智利)爆发对关键基础设施造成的破坏和破坏。该框架基于对灾难的法证分析以及在领结工具中融合的根本原因分析技术。它由与后续事件树连接的故障树组成,以描述影响的因果顺序。考虑到脆弱性的物理和系统层面,已经确定了四个影响等级:i)一阶是指物理损坏或对关键基础架构组件的主要影响;ii)第二级是指由于系统关键组件的物理损坏而导致的系统功能丧失;iii)第三阶是指由于不同关键基础设施之间的相互依赖性和连通性而导致的系统性影响;iv)较高的秩序与对主要经济部门的影响以及社会动荡有关,社会动荡可能导致对一个或多个受影响国家的经济产生整体损害。我们在阿根廷巴塔哥尼亚的研究表明,2011-2012年科尔多恩火山喷发的长期影响主要归因于次生危害(例如,灰烬的风迁移),这就加剧了主要影响,影响了较大的面积,并在较长的时间内影响了主要的特弗拉沉积。此外,系统脆弱性,尤其是系统内部和系统之间的固有依赖性,在所分析社区的级联影响中起着重要作用。
更新日期:2021-05-04
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