We investigate the effects of low oil prices and heightened geopolitical risks on economic growth and investment in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries. We find that negative shocks to oil prices and positive shocks to geopolitical risk have adverse effects on GDP and investment. Moreover, we find that the impact of investment on GDP in MENA countries is muted when oil prices are low and/or geopolitical risk level is high. These findings cast doubts on the prospects of mega-project economic transformation plans as envisioned in 2030 visions for several MENA countries.

中文翻译：

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流沙上的白象：低油价和高地缘政治风险

我们调查了低油价和地缘政治风险加剧对中东和北非 (MENA) 国家经济增长和投资的影响。我们发现，对油价的负面冲击和对地缘政治风险的正面冲击对GDP和投资都有不利影响。此外，我们发现，当油价低和/或地缘政治风险水平高时，投资对中东和北非国家 GDP 的影响会减弱。这些调查结果对几个中东和北非国家的 2030 年愿景中设想的大型项目经济转型计划的前景提出了质疑。