Evidence on the relationship between secondary international migration and welfare state (or formal protection) support is currently limited. Also, the experience of financial support from semiformal and informal social protection networks has seen limited inclusion in current reflections on secondary mobility patterns such as onward and return migration. Our study analyses the relationship between support from formal, informal and semiformal social protection and short-term secondary migration intentions. The study uses open-access data from the Regional Observatory for Integration and Multiethnicity of Lombardy (Italy) and adopts a competing-risk framework through multinomial logistic regression. Our data do not support the hypothesis of an ex-post “magnetic effect” of the Italian formal social protection on its beneficiaries: individuals on formal welfare are more prone to onward and return migration. However, the positive relationship observed between welfare entitlements and onward migration intentions cannot rule out any effect of welfare magnetism from more generous welfare systems. Monetary aid received from Italian friends is negatively related to return intention. At the same time, economic support from foreign-born friends is correlated to return migration. We interpret results according to social network theory. Economic support and social capital from bridging networks can act as an ex-post integration-driven magnet. Bonding social capital from ties with migrants in Italy cannot secure the migrants' stay in Italy. However, it can support return migration. Networks providing bonding transnational social capital, and expressed in the form of financial support from relatives living abroad, are instead positively correlated to both forms of secondary migration.

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福利和社会保护：与二次迁移有什么联系？来自 2014 年危机的证据袭击了意大利伦巴第大区

目前关于二级国际移民与福利国家（或正式保护）支持之间关系的证据有限。此外，来自半正规和非正规社会保护网络的财政支持经验在当前对二次流动模式（如向前和返回迁移）的思考中纳入有限。我们的研究分析了来自正式、非正式和半正式社会保护的支持与短期二次移民意图之间的关系。该研究使用来自伦巴第大区（意大利）一体化和多民族地区观察站的开放获取数据，并通过多项逻辑回归采用竞争风险框架。我们的数据不支持意大利正式社会保护对其受益人产生事后“磁效应”的假设：享有正式福利的个人更容易向前和返回移民。然而，在福利权利和继续移民意愿之间观察到的正相关关系不能排除更慷慨的福利制度带来的福利磁力的任何影响。意大利朋友的资金援助与回国意愿呈负相关。同时，来自外国出生的朋友的经济支持与回迁有关。我们根据社交网络理论解释结果。来自桥接网络的经济支持和社会资本可以作为事后整合驱动的磁石。将社会资本与意大利的移民联系起来并不能确保移民在意大利的逗留。但是，它可以支持返回迁移。提供结合跨国社会资本的网络，