A comprehensive understanding of ecosystem service (ES) bundles and their socioecological drivers is vital for ecological management and policymaking. However, the underlying mechanisms are still unclear due to less attention being paid to their historical dynamics. Taking the Three Gorges Reservoir Area as a case study, this study used Pearson parametric correlation analysis, k-means clustering analysis, and redundancy analysis to investigate how the ESs and their interactions have changed over time, and to identify historical spatial patterns of ES bundles and their associations with socioecological drivers. Results showed that: (1) most ESs improved over time but soil retention, water yield, and habitat provision showed slightly decreasing trends; (2) intensive agriculture and advances in technology diminished potential ES trade-offs related to food production, while the decrease in soil retention led to a decline in its synergistic relationships with water yield and nitrogen retention; (3) three ES bundles were identified at the watershed scale. The trajectory of each ES bundle could be attributed to the common effects of ecological projects and rapid urbanization. In particular, ecological projects have promoted the transformation of the ES bundle to the direction of high supply and low trade-off, yet trade-offs between ESs have not significantly improved because of constant urban expansion in a major city and its surrounding area; (4) the socioecological drivers determining ESs and ES bundles were also time-dependent, with the ratio of forest to land, slope, and population density being the major drivers. However, other random drivers (e.g., climate change) should also be highlighted as they generate great uncertainty for predicting future ES bundles and further ES management. Overall, our results advocate the historical assessment of the relationships between multiple ESs and socioecological drivers and emphasize the necessity of embracing a historical dynamic perspective in the sustainable management of ESs.

对生态系统服务（ES）捆绑及其社会生态驱动因素的全面理解对于生态管理和政策制定至关重要。然而，由于对其历史动态的关注较少，其潜在机制仍不清楚。以三峡库区为例，采用皮尔逊参数相关分析，k-均值聚类分析和冗余度分析方法研究了ES及其相互作用随时间的变化，并确定了ES束的历史空间格局。以及他们与社会生态学驱动因素的关系。结果表明：（1）大多数ES随着时间的推移而有所改善，但土壤保持力，水分产量和生境供应呈现出略微下降的趋势；（2）集约化农业和技术进步减少了与粮食生产有关的潜在ES权衡，而土壤保持力的下降导致其与水分和氮素保持力的协同关系下降；（3）在分水岭范围内确定了三个ES束。每个ES包的轨迹可归因于生态项目和快速城市化的共同影响。尤其是，生态项目促进了ES捆绑系统向高供给和低权衡的方向转变，但由于主要城市及其周边地区的城市不断扩张，ES之间的权衡并没有得到明显改善。（4）确定生态系统和生态系统包的社会生态驱动因素也与时间有关，森林与土地的比例，坡度，人口密度是主要驱动力。但是，还应强调其他随机驱动因素（例如，气候变化），因为它们为预测未来的ES捆绑包和进一步的ES管理产生了很大的不确定性。总体而言，我们的结果主张对多个ES和社会生态驱动因素之间的关系进行历史评估，并强调在ES的可持续管理中必​​须采用历史动态观点。