Neospora caninum (N. caninum) infection, one of the major causes of abortions in dairy cattle, has brought a huge loss to farmers worldwide. In this study, we develop a six-compartment susceptible-infected model of N. caninum transmission which is later reduced to a two-equation system. Potential controls including medication, test-and-cull, and vaccination are proposed and analyzed, and the corresponding reproduction numbers are derived. The conditions for the global stabilities of disease-free and endemic equilibria are investigated with analytical solutions and geometric approach. Furthermore, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis shows that three control strategies are effective towards the varied environment, whereas the effectiveness of each measure highly depends on parameters related to control actions. Dynamics of reproduction numbers illustrate that disease elimination can be achieved by three types of controls: (1) adopting medication with medicine efficacy higher than 0.4 to prevent vertical transmission, (2) implementing test-and-cull with culling coverage larger than 0.3, and (3) taking vaccine with coverage larger than 0.1. Numerical results suggest that preventive measures should at least include the prevention of access of other hosts, such as dogs, to cattle; otherwise, these control measures will lose effectiveness. Our presented study provides guidance for decision-making on N. caninum infected farm management.

中文翻译：

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使用流行病方法对奶牛新孢子虫感染的潜在控制进行建模和分析

新孢子虫（N. caninum）感染是造成奶牛流产的主要原因之一，给全世界的农民带来了巨大损失。在这项研究中，我们开发了六室犬新孢子虫易感性感染模型变速箱，后来被简化为两方程式系统。提出并分析了可能的控制措施，包括药物治疗，试验和剔除以及疫苗接种，并推导了相应的繁殖数。通过分析解决方案和几何方法研究了无疾病和地方性平衡的全球稳定性的条件。此外，不确定性和敏感性分析表明，三种控制策略对于变化的环境是有效的，而每种措施的有效性在很大程度上取决于与控制行为有关的参数。繁殖数量的动态表明，可以通过三种控制措施来消除疾病：（1）采用药效高于0.4的药物来防止垂直传播；（2）进行剔除覆盖范围大于0.3的试杀，以及（3）接种覆盖范围大于0.1的疫苗。数值结果表明，预防措施至少应包括防止其他宿主（如狗）接触牛；否则，这些控制措施将失去效力。我们提出的研究为以下方面的决策提供了指导N. caninum感染的农场管理。