A marine heatwave caused the total biomass of Gulf of Alaska (GOA) Pacific cod to plummet by 67% from 2015 to 2018. Based on the results from GOA Pacific cod stock assessment model, the North Pacific Fishery Management Council cut the GOA Pacific cod total allowable catch (TAC) by 80% in 2018. This study uses a 10-region multi-regional social accounting matrix model to compute the economic impacts of the cod fishery disaster on the six borough and census areas (BCAs) in Southwest Alaska plus effects on the other four regions. We consider both the negative effects of the reduction in the cod harvest and the offsetting effects from an observed increase in the price of the fish to calculate the “net” economic impacts. This study found that the offsetting effects from the price increase are significant; the reduction in total regional output in the rest of the United States is 15% less severe if effects of the price changes are taken into account. Furthermore, the region suffering the largest impacts on total seafood industry output (Aleutians East Borough) from the reduced TAC is not necessarily the region where the largest total regional impact occurs (rest of the U.S.).

海洋热浪导致从2015年到2018年阿拉斯加湾（GOA）太平洋鳕鱼的总生物量暴跌67％。根据GOA Pacific鳕鱼种群评估模型的结果，北太平洋渔业管理委员会削减了GOA Pacific鳕鱼的总量2018年可允许捕捞量（TAC）达到80％。本研究使用10个区域的多区域社会核算矩阵模型来计算鳕鱼渔业灾害对阿拉斯加西南六个自治市和人口普查区（BCA）的经济影响以及影响在其他四个地区。我们考虑了减少鳕鱼收成的负面影响和观察到的鱼价上涨所产生的抵消作用，以计算“净”经济影响。这项研究发现，价格上涨带来的抵消作用是显着的。如果考虑到价格变化的影响，美国其他地区的地区总产出下降的幅度要小15％。此外，TAC减少对海鲜产业总产值的影响最大的地区（阿留申群岛东部自治市）不一定是总区域影响最大的地区（美国其他地区）。