Climate change is likely to make matters worse in Ethiopia, where the primary sources of food production depend on agriculture, mainly rain-fed agriculture. This study has two folds: first, we estimate the marginal impact of climate variables on the dominant staple food crops (teff, maize, wheat, and sorghum) grown in Ethiopia using feasible generalized least square (FGLS) and autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity consistent standard error for 31 years’ time series data. Second, based on these estimates, we used regional climate models (UQAM _CRCM5 and SMHI_ RCA4) to identify yield sensitivity change in the future. A significant rise in mean monthly temperature and positive change in rainfall were observed from 1988 to 2018. Though an increase in maximum temperature had a favorable effect on all crop yields, a similar increase in minimum temperature was found to have an adverse impact. Since 2000 there has been a considerable increase in total production, but the increasing trends have been due to increases in area cultivated. Towards the end of the twenty-first century, the projection of climate impacts has suggested that with significant increases in temperature and decreases in rainfall result the decline of sorghum yield by 18.1% and wheat yield by 13.2%. However, the yield of teff and maize will be expected to increase by 20.2 and 17.9% respectively. We recommend adopting and expanding locally fitted climate-smart agricultural practices to minimize the long-run climate change impacts on crop production and address the country’s food security problems sustainably.

埃塞俄比亚的气候变化可能使情况变得更糟，埃塞俄比亚的粮食生产主要来源依靠农业，主要是雨养农业。这项研究有两个方面：首先，我们使用可行的广义最小二乘（FGLS）以及自相关和异方差一致的标准误，估算了气候变量对埃塞俄比亚主要的主食作物（特夫，玉米，小麦和高粱）的边际影响。 31年的时间序列数据。其次，基于这些估计，我们使用了区域气候模型（UQAM _CRCM5和SMHI_ RCA4）来确定未来的产量敏感性变化。从1988年到2018年，观测到的平均每月温度显着上升，降雨量发生了积极变化。尽管最高温度的升高对所有农作物的产量都产生了有利影响，发现最低温度的类似升高也有不利影响。自2000年以来，总产量有了相当大的增长，但是增长趋势归因于耕种面积的增加。到二十一世纪末，对气候影响的预测表明，随着温度的显着升高和降雨的减少，高粱产量下降了18.1％，小麦产量下降了13.2％。但是，预计teff和玉米的产量将分别增加20.2％和17.9％。我们建议采用和扩展适合当地情况的气候智能型农业实践，以最大程度地减少气候变化对农作物生产的长期影响，并可持续解决该国的粮食安全问题。自2000年以来，总产量有了相当大的增长，但是增长趋势归因于耕种面积的增加。到二十一世纪末，对气候影响的预测表明，随着温度的显着升高和降雨的减少，高粱产量下降了18.1％，小麦产量下降了13.2％。但是，预计teff和玉米的产量将分别增加20.2％和17.9％。我们建议采用和扩展适合当地情况的气候智能型农业实践，以最大程度地减少气候变化对农作物生产的长期影响，并可持续解决该国的粮食安全问题。自2000年以来，总产量有了相当大的增长，但是增长趋势归因于耕种面积的增加。到二十一世纪末，对气候影响的预测表明，随着温度的显着升高和降雨的减少，高粱产量下降了18.1％，小麦产量下降了13.2％。但是，预计teff和玉米的产量将分别增加20.2％和17.9％。我们建议采用和扩展适合当地情况的气候智能型农业实践，以最大程度地减少气候变化对农作物生产的长期影响，并可持续解决该国的粮食安全问题。气候影响的预测表明，随着温度的显着升高和降雨的减少，高粱产量下降了18.1％，小麦产量下降了13.2％。但是，预计teff和玉米的产量将分别增加20.2％和17.9％。我们建议采用和扩展适合当地情况的气候智能型农业实践，以最大程度地减少气候变化对农作物生产的长期影响，并可持续解决该国的粮食安全问题。气候影响的预测表明，随着温度的显着升高和降雨的减少，高粱产量下降了18.1％，小麦产量下降了13.2％。但是，预计teff和玉米的产量将分别增加20.2％和17.9％。我们建议采用和扩展适合当地情况的气候智能型农业实践，以最大程度地减少气候变化对农作物生产的长期影响，并可持续解决该国的粮食安全问题。