Recent evidence of regional climate change impacts on hydrological cycle directed us to study the floods in a high elevated and rapidly urbanized river basin, the Kabul River basin (KRB), Pakistan, which is susceptible to frequent flooding. Therefore, we analyzed the changes in flood regime at various spatial and temporal scales and their possible causes, which is accomplished by using flood indicators, trend analysis, change point analysis, and hydrological modeling. The results showed that the northern and northwestern parts of the KRB were more exposed to flood hazard than the southern parts under long-term scenario (1961/64-2015). However, after the change points, the flood risk decreased in the northern and increased in the southern regions. This spatial shift increased the vulnerability of population to the flood hazard, because the majority of population resides in the southern region. The extreme precipitation has also increased, especially the maximum one-day rainfall and maximum five-day rainfall throughout the basin. Particularly, the major cause of the decrease in different flood indicators in the northern parts of the KRB is the corresponding decrease in the annual and monsoonal rainfall and corresponding positive mass balance of glaciers in the northern region after the occurrence of change point in flood regime. However, the major cause of the increase in flood hazard on the southern part of the KRB is associated with maximum five-day rainfall. A 68% variability of annual maximum flood for the Kabul River at Nowshera and an 84% variability of annual maximum flood for Bara River at Jhansi post are explained by maximum five-day rainfall. In addition, a considerable decrease in forests (–5.21%) and increase in the urban area (88.26%) from 1992–2015 also amplifies the risk of higher flood peaks. The results of hydrological modeling suggest that the six-hourly flood peak increased by 6.85% (1992–2010) and 4.81% (2010–2015) for the extreme flood of 2010 for the Kabul River at Nowshera. The flood peak per decade will increase by 8.6%, as compared to the flood peak under the land use scenario of 2010. Therefore, consideration of proper land use planning is crucial for sustainable flood management in the KRB.

中文翻译：

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巴基斯坦喀布尔河流域洪水体制的空间变化，成因，挑战和机遇的检测

区域气候变化对水文循环影响的最新证据使我们研究了巴基斯坦喀布尔河流域（KRB）的高海拔，快速城市化流域中的洪灾，该洪灾易发洪水频发。因此，我们通过使用洪水指标，趋势分析，变化点分析和水文模型分析了不同时空尺度上洪水泛滥的变化及其可能的原因。结果表明，在长期情况下（1961 / 64-2015年），朝鲜民主主义人民共和国北部和西北部比南部地区更容易遭受洪水灾害。但是，在变更点之后，北部的洪水风险降低了，南部地区的洪水风险增加了。这种空间上的转移增加了人口对洪灾的脆弱性，因为大多数人口居住在南部地区。极端降水也有所增加，特别是整个盆地的最大一日降雨和最大五日降雨。特别是，在洪灾区变化点出现后，北半球北部地区不同洪水指标下降的主要原因是年降水量和季风量相应减少以及北部地区冰川的质量正平衡。但是，KRB南部洪灾危险增加的主要原因与最大的五天降雨量有关。五天的最大降雨量解释了Nowshera的喀布尔河的年度最大洪水的68％变化和Jhansi哨所的Bara河的年度最大洪水的84％变化。此外，从1992年至2015年，森林的大量减少（–5.21％）和城市区域的增加（88.26％）也加剧了洪峰上升的风险。水文模拟的结果表明，对于诺瓦谢拉的喀布尔河，2010年的极端洪水，六个小时的洪峰增加了6.85％（1992-2010年）和4.81％（2010-2015年）。与2010年土地使用情景下的洪灾高峰相比，每十年的洪灾高峰将增加8.6％。因此，考虑合理的土地利用规划对于KRB的可持续洪灾管理至关重要。Nowshera的喀布尔河在2010年发生特大洪灾时占81％（2010-2015年）。与2010年土地使用情景下的洪灾高峰相比，每十年的洪灾高峰将增加8.6％。因此，考虑合理的土地利用规划对于KRB的可持续洪灾管理至关重要。Nowshera的喀布尔河在2010年发生特大洪灾时占81％（2010-2015年）。与2010年土地使用情景下的洪灾高峰相比，每十年的洪灾高峰将增加8.6％。因此，考虑合理的土地利用规划对于KRB的可持续洪灾管理至关重要。