Demography accounts for a large share of low frequency inflation variation in 22 countries from 1870 to 2016. The dependent population (young and old) is associated with higher, and the working age population with lower inflation. The relationship is robust across different sub-samples and specifications, including dynamic Phillips curve settings, suggesting that it is not spurious. The observed pattern is broadly consistent with delayed monetary policy responses to demography-induced changes in the natural interest rate.

中文翻译：

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随时间推移的通货膨胀和人口统计

从1870年到2016年，人口统计学在22个国家的低频通货膨胀变化中占很大比例。受抚养人口（年轻人和老年人）与较高的人口相关，而劳动年龄人口的通货膨胀较低。在不同的子样本和规格（包括动态菲利普斯曲线设置）之间，这种关系是稳健的，表明这不是虚假的。观察到的模式与延迟的货币政策对人口统计学引起的自然利率变化的反应是一致的。