We assess the effects of land markets on misallocation and productivity both empirically and quantitatively. Exploiting variation from a land certification reform across time and space in Ethiopia, we find that certification facilitates rentals and improves agricultural productivity. We calibrate a quantitative macroeconomic model with heterogeneous household farms facing institutional costs to land markets using the micro panel data. The effect of a counterfactual reallocation from no rentals to efficient rentals increases zone-level agricultural productivity by 43 percent on average. While our estimated institutional costs are strongly associated with land certification across zones, there are nontrivial residual frictions to rental market activity, implying that land certification only partially captures the overall effects of rentals. A full certification reform accounts for about one-fourth of the overall productivity gains from land rentals. This result highlights the importance of comprehensive reforms alleviating frictions to land transactions beyond the granting of certificates.

我们从经验和数量上评估土地市场对错配和生产力的影响。利用埃塞俄比亚跨时空土地认证改革的变化，我们发现认证促进了租金并提高了农业生产力。我们使用微面板数据校准了一个量化宏观经济模型，其中异质家庭农场面临土地市场的制度成本。从无租金到有效租金的反事实重新分配的效果平均将区域级农业生产力提高了 43%。虽然我们估计的机构成本与跨区域的土地认证密切相关，但租赁市场活动存在不小的残余摩擦，这意味着土地认证只能部分反映租赁的整体影响。全面的认证改革约占土地租赁整体生产力收益的四分之一。这一结果凸显了全面改革的重要性，以缓解除颁发证书之外的土地交易摩擦。