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Assessing Past and future Hazardous freezing Rain and wet snow Events in Manitoba, Canada Using a pseudo-global warming approach
Atmospheric Research ( IF 5.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-28 , DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105656
Brock Tropea , Ronald Stewart

Freezing precipitation, in the form of freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and/or wet snow, can damage transportation networks, infrastructure, and vegetation. Ten events with freezing precipitation (including freezing rain and wet snow) over the province of Manitoba, Canada were examined using surface observational datasets, reanalysis products and 4-km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) products that were both a retrospective control (CTRL) simulation as well as a pseudo-global warming (PGW) simulation. All events tracked to the south and/or east of Manitoba and most (8 of 10) events were associated with a consistent large scale pattern of extratropical cyclone with 500 hPa trough, low surface pressure center nearby, and an atmospheric river. Local factors, such as the 400 m elevated terrain of Riding Mountain, influenced 2 events mainly by altering surface temperature to be favorable for freezing precipitation. These events in the PGW simulation occurred 40–120 km farther north on average, with freezing rain generally being enhanced and wet snow generally being reduced, although wet snow was introduced into events which originally only had freezing rain. This study further showed that power lines aligned west to east, perpendicular to the strongest winds, are most susceptible to the consequences of icing and accretion within the current climate as well as the thermodynamically forced future one.



中文翻译:

评估过去和未来的危险冻结雨雪和湿雪加拿大曼尼托巴省的事件使用伪全球变暖方法

冻雨以冻雨,冻毛毛雨和/或湿雪的形式出现,会损坏运输网络,基础设施和植被。使用地表观测数据集,再分析产品和分辨率均为4 km的天气研究与预报(WRF)产品,对加拿大曼尼托巴省的10次冻结降水(包括冻雨和湿雪)事件进行了检查,二者均为回顾性控制(CTRL) )模拟以及伪全球变暖(PGW)模拟。追踪到马尼托巴南部和/或东部的所有事件,大多数(每10个中的8个)事件与持续的大规模温带气旋模式有关,该热带气旋具有500 hPa的低谷,附近的低地表压力中心和大气河。当地因素,例如骑马山的400 m高空地形,影响这两个事件的主要原因是改变表面温度有利于冻结沉淀。在PGW模拟中,这些事件平均发生在更北的40-120 km处,虽然最初只具有冻雨的事件引入了湿雪,但通常增加了冻雨,通常减少了积雪。这项研究进一步表明,电力线从西向东排列,垂直于最强风,最容易受到当前气候以及未来热力学强迫下结冰和积炭的影响。尽管湿雪引入了最初只有冻雨的事件。这项研究进一步表明,电力线从西向东排列,垂直于最强风,最容易受到当前气候以及未来热力学强迫下结冰和积炭的影响。尽管湿雪引入了最初只有冻雨的事件。这项研究进一步表明,电力线从西向东排列,垂直于最强风,最容易受当前气候以及未来热力学强迫下结冰和积炭的影响。

更新日期:2021-05-13
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