Forecasting which dyads will develop mutually supportive relationships is an important applied and basic research question. Applying psychometric theory to the design of forecasting studies shows that agreement between dyad members about their relationship (relational reciprocity) sets an upper limit for forecasting accuracy by determining the reliability of measurement. To test this, we estimated relational reciprocity in Study 1. Participants in seven samples (six student and one military; N = 504; N_dyads = 766) rated each other on support-related constructs in round-robin designs. Relational reciprocity was very low, undermining reliability. Formulas from psychometric theory predicted that forecasting supportive dyads would be practically impossible. To test this, we had participants in Study 2 complete a measure for matching dyads derived from recent theory. As predicted, supportive matches could not be forecast with acceptable precision. Theoretically, this falsifies some predictions of recent social-support theory. Practically, it remains unclear how to translate basic social-support research into effective interventions.

预测哪些二元组将发展相互支持的关系是一个重要的应用和基础研究问题。将心理测量理论应用于预测研究的设计表明，二元成员之间就其关系（关系互惠）达成的一致通过确定测量的可靠性为预测准确性设定了上限。为了测试这一点，我们估计了研究 1 中的关系互惠。七个样本的参与者（六个学生和一个军人；N = 504；N_对= 766) 在循环设计中对与支持相关的结构进行评价。关系互惠性非常低，破坏了可靠性。来自心理测量理论的公式预测，预测支持性二元组实际上是不可能的。为了测试这一点，我们让研究 2 的参与者完成了一项测量，以匹配源自最新理论的二元组。正如预测的那样，无法以可接受的精度预测支持性比赛。从理论上讲，这证伪了最近社会支持理论的一些预测。实际上，尚不清楚如何将基本的社会支持研究转化为有效的干预措施。