ABSTRACT

Previous tourism-uncertainty assessments have employed annual or quarterly time-series, which tends to suppress the often critical short-run deviations of uncertainty. This paper utilizes higher frequency (monthly) data to examine the effects of global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) on tourist arrivals for a panel of 19 countries. We adopt pooled mean group (PMG), dynamic ordinary least square (DOLS) and fully modified ordinary least square (FMOLS) for analysis. We find that the effects of uncertainty on tourism demand are negative in the short-run. Conversely, the sign of the long-run GEPU coefficient is found to be positive. And, this is confirmed by alternate estimators adopted for analysis. Overall, our results suggest that tourism and policy uncertainty share a complicated relationship, therefore, policymakers should bear this in mind when forecasting tourism demand across different time spans.

摘要

以前的旅游不确定性评估采用年度或季度时间序列，这往往会抑制通常至关重要的短期不确定性偏差。本文利用更高频率（每月）的数据来研究全球经济政策不确定性 (GEPU) 对一组 19 个国家/地区的游客人数的影响。我们采用合并均值组（PMG）、动态普通最小二乘法（DOLS）和完全修正普通最小二乘法（FMOLS）进行分析。我们发现不确定性对旅游需求的影响在短期内是负面的。相反，发现长期 GEPU 系数的符号为正。并且，这已被用于分析的替代估算器证实。总的来说，我们的结果表明旅游业和政策不确定性有着复杂的关系，因此，