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Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ climate progress
Nature Climate Change ( IF 30.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-26 , DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01033-6
Giacomo Grassi , Elke Stehfest , Joeri Rogelj , Detlef van Vuuren , Alessandro Cescatti , Jo House , Gert-Jan Nabuurs , Simone Rossi , Ramdane Alkama , Raúl Abad Viñas , Katherine Calvin , Guido Ceccherini , Sandro Federici , Shinichiro Fujimori , Mykola Gusti , Tomoko Hasegawa , Petr Havlik , Florian Humpenöder , Anu Korosuo , Lucia Perugini , Francesco N. Tubiello , Alexander Popp

Mitigation pathways by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) describe future emissions that keep global warming below specific temperature limits and are compared with countries’ collective greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction pledges. This is needed to assess mitigation progress and inform emission targets under the Paris Agreement. Currently, however, a mismatch of ~5.5 GtCO2 yr−1 exists between the global land-use fluxes estimated with IAMs and from countries’ GHG inventories. Here we present a ‘Rosetta stone’ adjustment to translate IAMs’ land-use mitigation pathways to estimates more comparable with GHG inventories. This does not change the original decarbonization pathways, but reallocates part of the land sink to be consistent with GHG inventories. Adjusted cumulative emissions over the period until net zero for 1.5 or 2 °C limits are reduced by 120–192 GtCO2 relative to the original IAM pathways. These differences should be taken into account to ensure an accurate assessment of progress towards the Paris Agreement.



中文翻译:

评估国家气候进展的土地减缓路径的关键调整

综合评估模型 (IAM) 的缓解路径描述了将全球变暖保持在特定温度限值以下的未来排放,并与各国的集体温室气体 (GHG) 减排承诺进行了比较。这是评估减缓进展并为《巴黎协定》下的排放目标提供信息所必需的。然而,目前,~5.5 GtCO 2  yr -1的不匹配IAM 估算的全球土地利用通量与各国温室气体清单之间存在差异。在这里,我们提出了一个“罗塞塔石碑”调整,以将 IAM 的土地利用缓解途径转化为与温室气体清单更具可比性的估计。这不会改变原来的脱碳路径,而是重新分配部分土地汇以与温室气体清单保持一致。相对于原始 IAM 路径,在 1.5 或 2 °C 限值的净零之前期间调整后的累积排放量减少了 120–192 GtCO 2 。应考虑到这些差异,以确保准确评估《巴黎协定》的进展情况。

更新日期:2021-04-26
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