Scenario simulation of water resources development and utilization based on a system dynamics model,International Journal of Water Resources Development

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Scenario simulation of water resources development and utilization based on a system dynamics model
International Journal of Water Resources Development ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-26 , DOI: 10.1080/07900627.2021.1908235
Huan Wang ₁ , Jiejun Huang ₁ , Xuejun Cheng ₂ , Han Zhou ₁ , Yanbin Yuan ₁

Affiliation

ABSTRACT

This paper establishes a quantitative model based on the system dynamics (SD) theory to reflect the ‘socioeconomic–water–environment’ coupling system and proposes three future development scenarios. Hubei province, China, is selected to verify this model. The simulation results from 2020 to 2030 demonstrate that the pressures of water supply and demand and pollution under the sustainable development scenario are less than those under two other scenarios. It means that adjustment of the industrial structure has a relatively weaker effect on alleviating the pressure of water supply and demand. Saving water and controlling pollution should be the emphasis of current efforts.

更新日期：2021-04-26

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