The mitigation required to achieve the 1.5 °C goal of the Paris Agreement entails drastic emissions reductions. The mentioned goal is of special interest for regions like the Mediterranean where the average temperature is rising above the world average with the consequential risk for the future viability of its different ecosystems. The objective of this work is to analyze if the commitments of the Mediterranean Basin countries submitted under the Paris Agreement framework are in line with the 1.5 °C goal. For this analysis, the cumulative emissions of the current Nationally Determined Contributions of these countries until 2030, are compared with the result obtained from distributing the cumulative greenhouse gas emissions compatible with the 1.5 °C global mitigation scenario between 2018 and 2100. This distribution is obtained using the Model of Climate Justice that allocates the global emissions by using equity criteria (equality and responsibility) that take into consideration the historical responsibility for each country, in the period from 1994 to 2017. There are two main conclusions from the analysis of the NDCs. Firstly, it is concluded that the Mediterranean Basin countries, as a whole, are not in line with the 1.5 °C goal, because by 2030, 77% of the emissions budget that should be available until 2100, based on the equity criteria aforementioned, will already have been emitted. And, secondly, when the NDCs for each one of the countries are compared, some significant differences in the degree of ambition can be seen.

为实现《巴黎协定》的1.5°C目标而需要的缓解措施需要大幅度减少排放量。对于像地中海这样的平均温度高于世界平均水平且对其不同生态系统的未来生存能力有潜在风险的地区，上述目标特别感兴趣。这项工作的目的是分析根据《巴黎协定》框架提交的地中海盆地国家的承诺是否符合1.5°C的目标。在此分析中，将这些国家当前的国家自主贡献的累积排放量（到2030年）与分配的温室气体累积排放量（与2018年至2100年全球1.5°C减排情景相适应）进行比较。该分布是使用气候公正模型得出的，该模型使用公平标准（平等和责任）对全球排放进行分配，该标准考虑了每个国家在1994年至2017年之间的历史责任。国家数据中心的分析。首先，可以得出结论，整个地中海盆地国家与1.5°C的目标不符，因为根据上述公平性标准，到2030年，到2100年，应有77％的排放预算可用，将已经被发射。其次，当比较每个国家的国家数据中心时，可以看出他们的野心程度存在一些显着差异。