Abstract

This article is devoted to the methodology and analysis of the results of economic assessment and forecasting of the consequences of global climate change in the form of permafrost thawing and degradation for the housing sector in eight regions of the Russian Arctic. Changes in the state of permafrost soils during the implementation of the most negative (scenario RCP 8.5) of the IPCC forecast options as the most appropriate to the conditions of the Russian Arctic were taken as a physio-geographic basis for the assessment. It is shown that, under a conservative scenario of the housing sector development in this macroregion of Russia in 2020–2050, the annual average cost of maintenance and restoration of the lost housing stock will exceed ₽30 bln. With the implementation of the modernization scenario, the cost above will increase to ₽36 bln. The maximum expected loss is predicted in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug and Krasnoyarsk krai, and the minimum, in the Chukotka and Khanty–Mansi autonomous okrugs.

中文翻译：

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俄罗斯北极地区多年冻土退化对住房部门影响的经济评估

摘要

本文致力于对俄罗斯北极地区八个地区的经济评估结果进行方法论和分析，并以多年冻土融化和退化对房屋部门的形式对全球气候变化的后果进行预测。在实施IPCC最不利（情境RCP 8.5）最适合俄罗斯北极条件的方案期间，多年冻土的状态变化被作为评估的物理地理基础。结果表明，在保守的情况下，即在2020-2050年俄罗斯这个大区域的住房部门发展的情况下，每年失去房屋存量的维护和恢复的年平均成本将超过300亿英镑。随着现代化方案的实施，上述成本将增加至360亿英镑。