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Modulation of global sea surface temperature on tropical cyclone rapid intensification frequency
Environmental Research Communications ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-12 , DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/abf39b
Jiacheng Hong 1 , Qiaoyan Wu 1, 2
Affiliation  

Rapid intensification (RI; ≥30 knots within 24 h) is an essential characteristic of a CAT 4–5 hurricane (≥115 knots). Between 1980 and 2018, interannual variability in CAT 4–5 hurricanes was strongly correlated with RI, both globally and in individual basins. The annual number of tropical cyclone RI events is a useful measure of global intense CAT 4–5 hurricanes. Here, singular value decomposition analysis was applied to sea surface temperature and the number of RI events throughout the world as calculated from best track data. The first two modes explained ~70% of the total covariance. The mode that dominated variability in global RI occurrence was primarily modulated by the El Nio southern oscillation and the Pacific decadal oscillation. The first mode indicated decreased RI activity in the North Atlantic and increased RI activity in the North Pacific except between 10–30 N and 125–135 E, and the corresponding sea surface temperature pattern matched the positive El Nio southern oscillation and Pacific decadal oscillation phases. For the second mode, RI occurrence increased in most parts of the active RI region though with some exceptions, and this was linked with global warming. These results suggest that interannul variability in TC RI events and the associated CAT 4–5 hurricanes are modulated by climate variability in the global scale.



中文翻译:

全球海面温度对热带气旋快速增强频率的调制

快速增强(RI;24 小时内≥30 节)是CAT 4-5 飓风(≥115 节)的基本特征。1980 年至 2018 年期间,CAT 4-5 飓风的年际变化与全球和个别盆地的 RI 密切相关。热带气旋 RI 事件的年度数量是衡量全球强 CAT 4-5 飓风的有用指标。在这里,奇异值分解分析应用于海面温度和世界各地 RI 事件的数量,根据最佳轨迹数据计算得出。前两种模式解释了总协方差的约 70%。主导全球 RI 发生变异的模式主要受厄尔尼奥南部振荡和太平洋年代际振荡的调制。第一种模式表明北大西洋 RI 活动减少,北太平洋 RI 活动增加,除了 10-30 N 和 125-135 E 之间,相应的海面温度模式与厄尔尼奥南部正振荡和太平洋年代际振荡相匹配. 对于第二种模式,RI 活动在 RI 活动区的大部分地区出现增加,但也有一些例外,这与全球变暖有关。这些结果表明,TC RI 事件和相关的 CAT 4-5 飓风的年际变率受到全球尺度气候变率的调节。尽管有一些例外,但在活跃的 RI 区域的大部分地区,RI 的发生率有所增加,这与全球变暖有关。这些结果表明,TC RI 事件和相关的 CAT 4-5 飓风的年际变率受到全球尺度气候变率的调节。尽管有一些例外,但在活跃的 RI 区域的大部分地区,RI 的发生率有所增加,这与全球变暖有关。这些结果表明,TC RI 事件和相关的 CAT 4-5 飓风的年际变率受到全球尺度气候变率的调节。

更新日期:2021-04-12
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