We study the macroeconomic consequences of a major trade disruption using the example of the Finnish–Soviet trade collapse in 1991. This is a rare case of a well–identified large trade shock in a developed economy. We find that the shock significantly affected Finnish output. Even so, the trade collapse was insufficient to generate an all–out crisis, and accounts for only a part of the Finnish Great Depression (1990–1993). We show that shocks originating domestically played a major role throughout the depression.

中文翻译：

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巨大的贸易冲击会引发危机吗？芬苏贸易崩溃案例¹

我们以1991年的芬兰-苏联贸易崩溃为例，研究了一次重大贸易中断的宏观经济后果。这是在发达经济体中众所周知的大规模贸易冲击的罕见情况。我们发现，冲击严重影响了芬兰的产出。即使这样，贸易崩溃还是不足以引发全面危机，仅占芬兰大萧条（1990-1993年）的一部分。我们表明，在整个萧条时期，来自国内的冲击都起着主要作用。