Wheat is an important agricultural crop globally. India ranks second in the world, accounting for ~ 14% of global wheat production. Wheat provides food and livelihood to a large Indian population. India would require improving its wheat yield significantly to feed the growing population. Ascertaining the wheat yield trends and their sensitivity to rising temperatures is crucial to enable sustainable wheat production, ensuring a continuous food supply. India is a diverse and vast country. One size fit to all approach seems not to offer practical and workable solutions. Therefore, it is essential to perform finer resolution analysis to identify the smallest possible administrative units (districts) to implement adaptation strategies. This study presents the spatial distribution of wheat yield trends and the impact of temperature on wheat yield across Indian districts. The key differentiating aspect of the present work is the district-level analysis compared to state-of-the-art state-level analysis in the earlier literature. We developed detailed wheat yield and temperature statistics of 50 years (1966–2015) by employing various statistical models. The present study’s critical findings over the state-of-the-art research work are: (1) Wheat yield is not improving in 69 out of 175 districts across eight major wheat-producing Indian states. 175 districts included in the analysis constitute ~ 94% of the total wheat harvested area in India, and the 69 identified districts constitute ~ 48.3% of the total wheat harvested area. The stagnation in wheat yield is prominent in Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Punjab. (2) Mean temperature rise has negatively impacted wheat yield in 145 districts (~ 76.5% of the total wheat harvested area), causing ~ 251 kg/ha (~ 16%) yield loss in statistically significant districts. The rigorous and robust methodology in this paper ensures the validity of findings and provides higher confidence in utilizing the findings in policymaking. The method and approach used in the study pave the way for similar investigations in the other parts of the world, where wheat is an important crop.

小麦是全球重要的农作物。印度排名世界第二，约占全球小麦产量的14％。小麦为大量印度人提供了食物和生计。印度将需要大幅度提高其小麦单产，以养活不断增长的人口。确定小麦的产量趋势及其对温度升高的敏感性对于实现可持续的小麦生产，确保持续的粮食供应至关重要。印度是一个多元化而广阔的国家。一种尺寸适合所有人这种方法似乎无法提供切实可行的解决方案。因此，必须执行更精细的分析，以识别可能的最小行政单位（区）以实施适应策略。这项研究提出了印度各地区小麦单产趋势的空间分布以及温度对小麦单产的影响。当前工作的主要区别在于与最新的国家级分析相比，区域级分析在较早的文献中。通过采用各种统计模型，我们开发了50年（1966-2015年）的详细小麦产量和温度统计数据。本研究对最新研究工作的关键发现是：（1）在印度八个主要产小麦州的175个地区中，有69个地区的小麦单产并未提高。分析中包括的175个地区约占印度小麦总收获面积的94％，确定的69个地区约占小麦总收获面积的48.3％。在哈里亚纳邦，北方邦，马哈拉施特拉邦和旁遮普邦，小麦单产停滞不前。（2）平均温度上升对145个地区（约占小麦总收获面积的76.5％）的小麦单产产生了负面影响，在统计学上显着的地区造成〜251 kg / ha（〜16％）的单产下降。本文中严格而稳健的方法论确保了调查结果的有效性，并为在决策中利用调查结果提供了更高的信心。该研究中使用的方法和方法为世界其他地区（小麦是重要农作物）的类似研究铺平了道路。