Cultural tourism has gained much attention in the last decade and has promoted the preservation of a variety of tangible and intangible assets of culture. In order to accurately predict the cultural tourism passenger flow in the Yangtze River Delta and improve its economic benefits, this paper designs the prediction model of cultural tourism passenger flow in the Yangtze River Delta based on regression analysis. Taking the competitiveness of passenger flow as the core, this paper selects 28 indexes from four aspects of cultural tourism brand resources, cultural tourism support and protection, and urban tourism market income to build the evaluation index system of influencing factors of passenger flow. The principal component analysis method is used to simplify many related factors into a few uncorrelated factors to eliminate the multicollinearity caused by too many dependent variables; on this basis, the principal component regression model is constructed, and the determination coefficient is used to test the model fitting. Taking 15 cultural tourism cities in the Yangtze River Delta as the research object, the results show that the designed model has a good fitting degree, and the average error is only 0.41%, which can meet the needs of the prediction of cultural tourism passenger flow in the Yangtze River Delta. After the application of the prediction model, the foreign exchange earning amount of each cultural tourism city can be increased by more than 12%. The study has revealed good results.

中文翻译：

---

基于回归分析的长三角文化旅游客流预测模型设计

在过去的十年中，文化旅游引起了广泛关注，并促进了对各种有形和无形文化资产的保存。为了准确预测长三角地区文化旅游客流量，提高经济效益，在回归分析的基础上，设计了长三角地区文化旅游客流量的预测模型。以客流竞争力为核心，从文化旅游品牌资源，文化旅游支持与保护，城市旅游市场收入四个方面选取28个指标，建立客流影响因素评价指标体系。主成分分析法用于将许多相关因素简化为一些不相关因素，以消除因过多的因变量引起的多重共线性。在此基础上，构建了主成分回归模型，并利用确定系数对模型拟合进行了检验。结果以长三角15个文化旅游城市为研究对象，结果表明所设计的模型具有较好的拟合度，平均误差仅为0.41％，能够满足文化旅游客流预测的需求。在长三角。应用该预测模型，可使每个文化旅游城市的外汇创汇额增加12％以上。该研究显示了良好的结果。在此基础上，构建了主成分回归模型，并利用确定系数对模型拟合进行了检验。结果以长三角15个文化旅游城市为研究对象，结果表明所设计的模型具有较好的拟合度，平均误差仅为0.41％，能够满足文化旅游客流预测的需求。在长三角。应用该预测模型，可使每个文化旅游城市的外汇创汇额增加12％以上。该研究显示了良好的结果。在此基础上，构建了主成分回归模型，并利用确定系数对模型拟合进行了检验。结果以长三角15个文化旅游城市为研究对象，结果表明所设计的模型具有较好的拟合度，平均误差仅为0.41％，能够满足文化旅游客流预测的需求。在长三角。应用该预测模型，可使每个文化旅游城市的外汇创汇额增加12％以上。该研究显示了良好的结果。结果表明，所设计的模型具有较好的拟合度，平均误差仅为0.41％，能够满足长三角地区文化旅游客流量预测的需求。应用该预测模型，可使每个文化旅游城市的外汇创汇额增加12％以上。该研究显示了良好的结果。结果表明，所设计的模型具有较好的拟合度，平均误差仅为0.41％，能够满足长三角地区文化旅游客流量预测的需求。应用该预测模型，可使每个文化旅游城市的外汇创汇额增加12％以上。该研究显示了良好的结果。