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A process-based model to forecast risk of potato late blight in Norway (The Nærstad model): model development, sensitivity analysis and Bayesian calibration
Ecological Modelling ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-23 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109565
Anne-Grete Roer Hjelkrem , Håvard Eikemo , Vinh Hong Le , Arne Hermansen , Ragnhild Nærstad

Late blight caused by Phytophthora infestans is a serious, worldwide disease on potato (Solanum tuberosum). Phytophthora infestans normally reproduces in a clonal manner, but in some areas, as the Nordic Countries, sexual reproduction has become the major determinant of the population structure. To improve the late blight forecasting in Norway, the process-based Nærstad model was developed. The model includes the structure of the underlying processes in the disease development, including spore production, spore release, spore survival and infection of P. infestans. It needs hourly weather records of air temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, leaf wetness and global radiation. The model contained 19 uncertain parameters, and from a sensitivity analysis, 12 were detected as weakly sensitive to model outputs and fixed to a nominal value within their prior boundaries. The remaining seven parameters were detected as more sensitive to model outputs and were parameterized using maximum a'posteriori (MAP) estimates, calculated through Bayesian calibration. The model was developed based on literature combined with field data of daily observed number of lesions on trap plants of the Bintje cultivar (late blight susceptible) at Ås during the seasons 2006-2008 and 2010-2011. It was further tested on daily observed number of lesions on trap plants of the cultivars Bintje, Saturna (medium susceptible) and Peik (medium resistant) at Ås during the seasons 2012-2015. For all three cultivars, the Nærstad model improved with a higher model accuracy compared to the existing HOSPO-model and the Førsund rules that both have shown relatively good correlation with blight development in field evaluations in Norway. The best accuracy was found for Bintje (0.83) closely followed by Saturna (0.79), whereas a much lower accuracy was detected for Peik (0.66).



中文翻译:

一个基于过程的模型来预测挪威马铃薯晚疫病的风险(Nærstad模型):模型开发,敏感性分析和贝叶斯校准

引起晚疫病晚疫病是马铃薯严重的全球性疾病(马铃薯)。疫霉菌通常以无性繁殖方式繁殖,但在某些地区,如北欧国家一样,有性繁殖已成为决定人口结构的主要因素。为了改善挪威的晚疫病预报,开发了基于过程的Nærstad模型。该模型包括疾病发展中潜在过程的结构,包括孢子的产生,孢子的释放,孢子的存活和感染致病疫霉。。它需要每小时记录一次气温,降水量,相对湿度,叶片湿度和全球辐射的天气记录。该模型包含19个不确定参数,通过敏感性分析,发现有12个对模型输出弱敏感,并固定在其先前边界内的标称值。检测到其余七个参数对模型输出更敏感,并使用通过贝叶斯校准计算的最大后验(MAP)估计值进行参数设置。该模型是根据文献资料结合2006-2008年和2010-2011年间Ås的Bintje栽培品种(晚疫病易感者)的诱捕植物上每天观察到的病斑数量的野外数据而开发的。进一步测试了在Bintje品种的诱集植物上每天观察到的病斑数量,在2012-2015年期间,Ås的Saturna(中等敏感度)和Peik(中等抵抗性)处于Ås状态。与现有的HOSPO模型和Førsund规则相比,这三个品种的Nærstad模型均以更高的模型精度进行了改进,这两个模型都与挪威田间评估中的枯萎病发展具有相对较好的相关性。发现Bintje(0.83)的最佳准确性紧随其后,是Saturna(0.79),而Peik(0.66)的准确性低得多。

更新日期:2021-04-23
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