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Linking retirement age to life expectancy does not lessen the demographic implications of unequal lifespans
Insurance: Mathematics and Economics ( IF 1.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-23 , DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2021.04.010
Jesús-Adrián Alvarez , Malene Kallestrup-Lamb , Søren Kjærgaard

The fact that individuals are living longer and thus spending more time in retirement challenges the sustainability of pension systems. This has forced policy makers to rethink the design of pension plans to mitigate the burden of increased longevity. Countries such as the Netherlands, Estonia, Denmark and Finland have implemented reforms that link retirement age to changes in life expectancy. However, the demographic and financial implications of such linkages are not well understood. This study analyses the Danish case, using high-quality data from population registers during the period 1985-2016. We identify trends in demographic and actuarial measures after retirement by sex and socio-economic group. We also introduce a new decomposition method to disentangle the demographic sources of socio-economic disparities in pension costs per year of expected benefits. We reach two main results. First, linking retirement age to life expectancy increases uncertainty about length of life after retirement, with the financial cost becoming more sensitive to changes in mortality. Second, socio-economic disparities in lifespans persist regardless of the age at which individuals retire. Males from lower socio-economic groups are at a greater disadvantage, because they spend fewer years in retirement, pay higher pension costs per year of expected benefits and are exposed to higher longevity risk than the rest of the population. This disadvantageous setting is magnified when retirement age is linked to life expectancy.



中文翻译:

将退休年龄与预期寿命联系起来并不能减轻不平等寿命对人口的影响

个人的寿命更长,因而花了更多的时间退休,这一事实对养老金制度的可持续性提出了挑战。这迫使决策者重新考虑养老金计划的设计,以减轻寿命延长的负担。荷兰,爱沙尼亚,丹麦和芬兰等国家已经实施了改革,将退休年龄与预期寿命的变化联系起来。但是,这种联系的人口和财务影响尚不清楚。本研究使用1985-2016年期间人口登记册的高质量数据分析了丹麦的案例。我们按性别和社会经济群体确定退休后人口统计和精算方法的趋势。我们还引入了一种新的分解方法,以消除人口预期经济效益中养老金成本中社会经济差异的人口统计来源。我们得到两个主要结果。首先,将退休年龄与预期寿命联系起来,增加了退休后寿命的不确定性,财务成本对死亡率的变化变得更加敏感。其次,寿命的社会经济差距仍然存在,无论个人退休年龄如何。来自较低社会经济群体的男性处于更大的劣势,因为他们的退休时间较短,每年为预期福利支付的养老金成本较高,并且比其他人群面临更高的寿命风险。当退休年龄与预期寿命相关联时,这种不利的局面就会被放大。首先,将退休年龄与预期寿命联系起来,增加了退休后寿命的不确定性,财务成本对死亡率的变化变得更加敏感。其次,寿命的社会经济差距仍然存在,无论个人退休年龄如何。来自较低社会经济群体的男性处于更大的劣势,因为他们的退休时间较短,每年为预期福利支付的养老金成本较高,并且比其他人群面临更高的寿命风险。当退休年龄与预期寿命相关联时,这种不利的局面就会被放大。首先,将退休年龄与预期寿命联系起来,增加了退休后寿命的不确定性,财务成本对死亡率的变化变得更加敏感。其次,寿命的社会经济差距仍然存在,无论个人退休年龄如何。来自较低社会经济群体的男性处于更大的劣势,因为他们的退休时间较短,每年为预期福利支付的养老金成本较高,并且比其他人群面临更高的寿命风险。当退休年龄与预期寿命相关联时,这种不利的局面就会被放大。不论个人退休年龄如何,寿命中的社会经济差异仍然存在。来自较低社会经济群体的男性处于更大的劣势,因为他们的退休时间较短,每年为预期福利支付的养老金成本较高,并且比其他人群面临更高的寿命风险。当退休年龄与预期寿命相关联时,这种不利的局面就会被放大。不论个人退休年龄如何,寿命中的社会经济差异仍然存在。来自较低社会经济群体的男性处于更大的劣势,因为他们的退休时间较短,每年为预期福利支付的养老金成本较高,并且承受的寿命比其他人群更高。当退休年龄与预期寿命相关联时,这种不利条件会被放大。

更新日期:2021-04-23
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