By considering the market competition among retailers, the object of this study is to measure the bullwhip effect in a two-stage supply chain with one supplier and multiple retailers. A model is detailed for measuring the bullwhip effect in which multiple retailers exhibit AR(1) demand processes and the degree of market competition is captured with copula. Through the model developed in this paper, we use simulation methods to study the influence of market competition on the bullwhip effect. The simulation results show that the market competition has a significant impact on bullwhip effect. The influence of the types of copulas on the bullwhip effect remains stable as the lead time increases. The supply chain structure has an impact on the bullwhip effect. The results of the empirical application show that a suitable copula helps to improve prediction accuracy for the bullwhip effect. Moreover, we discuss how our study can be applied to bullwhip effect management.

通过考虑零售商之间的市场竞争，本研究的目的是衡量在一个供应商和多个零售商的两阶段供应链中的牛鞭效应。详细介绍了一种模型，用于测量牛鞭效应，在该模型中，多个零售商展示了AR（1）需求过程，并且使用copula捕获了市场竞争程度。通过本文开发的模型，我们使用模拟方法来研究市场竞争对牛鞭效应的影响。仿真结果表明，市场竞争对牛鞭效应具有显着影响。随着交货时间的增加，copulas的类型对牛鞭效应的影响保持稳定。供应链结构对牛鞭效应有影响。实证应用的结果表明，合适的系词有助于提高牛鞭效应的预测准确性。此外，我们讨论了我们的研究如何应用于牛鞭效应管理。