Wetland systems, including shallow palustrine ponds, are hotspots for emergent aquatic insects but are globally threatened by land-use practices and climate change. Loss of insects is hypothesized as a key driver of population declines in aerial insectivores, but studies of climate-driven fluctuations in pond abundance during wet-dry periods and aerial insects on nestling quality and apparent recruitment are lacking. Using tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) data spanning 14–28 years we evaluated: (1) whether nestling quality based on pre-fledging (~ 12 days old) body mass changed over the time series; (2) how annual estimates of aerial insect biomass and variability, temperature, and pond abundance influenced nestling mass; and (3) whether the annual number of recruits produced was related to the annual mean mass of nestlings, aerial insects, and pond abundance in their year of hatching. Average nestling body mass varied annually but no long-term temporal trends were detected. Nestlings were heavier when raised during periods of stable insect biomass, warmer temperatures, and higher pond abundance. Pond abundance consistently had strong effects on nestling mass and inter-annual apparent recruitment, suggesting that this metric provides a complementary index of either higher prey abundance or higher-quality aquatic prey. Overall, pre-fledging quality and annual recruitment of nestling tree swallows reflects dynamic interannual changes in climate, pond availability, and aerial insect food supply. Our findings further suggest the abundance of ponds in this semi-arid prairie landscape is likely a strong predictor of regional population stability in tree swallows and possibly other ecologically similar species.

湿地系统，包括浅浅的浅水池塘，是新兴水生昆虫的热点，但在全球范围内受到土地使用习惯和气候变化的威胁。昆虫的损失被认为是气生食虫种群减少的主要驱动力，但是，缺乏对气候驱动的干湿期池塘丰度波动以及气生昆虫对雏鸟质量和明显募集的研究。使用树燕子（Tachycineta bicolor）我们评估了14到28年的数据：（1）基于出雏前（约12天大）体重的雏鸟质量在时间序列中是否发生了变化；（2）空中昆虫生物量和变异性，温度和池塘丰度的年度估算如何影响雏鸟质量；（3）每年的新招募人数是否与孵化当年的雏鸟，空中昆虫和池塘丰度的年平均质量有关。雏鸟的平均体重每年变化，但没有发现长期的时间趋势。在稳定的昆虫生物量，较暖的温度和较高的池塘丰度期间，雏鸟较重。池塘的丰度一直对雏鸟的数量和年际表观募集产生强烈影响，这表明该指标提供了更高猎物数量或更高品质水生猎物的互补指数。总体而言，雏鸟燕子出雏前的质量和每年的捕捞量反映了气候，池塘供应量和空中昆虫食物供应的动态年际变化。我们的发现进一步表明，在半干旱的草原景观中，大量的池塘可能是燕子和其他生态类似物种区域人口稳定的有力预测指标。