Tropical forests provide enormous ecological and economic value. The potential is rapidly growing for carbon markets to deliver private and public compensation for emissions reductions from forest protection at national and subnational scales. Nevertheless, monetization of forest ecosystem services remains scant, leaving forests vulnerable to conversion to other land uses in the short run. We develop a real options framework for a representative farmer’s land-use decisions, identifying a value gap between private short-term incentives versus long-term benefits from carbon market compensation, given uncertainties over future values for emissions reductions from forest protection. A quantitative illustration of this framework for Mato Grosso, Brazil, demonstrates that forest conservation coupled with cattle ranching intensification is competitive with the predominant practice of extensive cattle production, but is hindered by landholders’ perceptions of the relative option values to different land uses. We show how bonds, call and put options allow for early monetization of part of potential future carbon revenues, even under uncertainty, changing incentives at the landholder level and jumpstarting conservation and more efficient models of agricultural production. These approaches provide a model for addressing the financial needs of farmers on the ground to accelerate the transition towards low-deforestation rural development at large scales.

热带森林具有巨大的生态和经济价值。碳市场为国家和国家以下各级的森林保护减排提供私人和公共补偿的潜力正在迅速增长。然而，森林生态系统服务的货币化仍然很少，这使得森林在短期内容易转化为其他土地用途。我们为有代表性的农民的土地使用决策制定了一个实物期权框架，确定了私人短期激励与碳市场补偿的长期收益之间的价值差距，因为森林保护减排的未来价值存在不确定性。巴西马托格罗索州此框架的定量说明，证明了森林保护与牛群集约化在广泛的牛群生产的主要实践中具有竞争性，但由于土地所有者对不同土地用途的相对选择价值的理解而受到阻碍。我们展示了债券，看涨期权和看跌期权如何使部分潜在的未来碳收入得以早期货币化，即使在不确定性，土地所有者一级的激励机制变化以及保护措施的启动和更有效的农业生产模式下也是如此。这些方法为满足当地农民的资金需求提供了一个模型，可加快大规模向低森林砍伐农村发展的过渡。但是由于土地所有者对不同土地用途的相对期权价值的理解而受到阻碍。我们展示了债券，看涨期权和看跌期权如何使部分潜在的未来碳收入得以早期货币化，即使在不确定性，土地所有者一级的激励机制变化以及保护措施的启动和更有效的农业生产模式下也是如此。这些方法为满足当地农民的资金需求提供了一个模型，可加快大规模向低森林砍伐农村发展的过渡。但是由于土地所有者对不同土地用途的相对期权价值的理解而受到阻碍。我们展示了债券，看涨期权和看跌期权如何使部分潜在的未来碳收入得以早期货币化，即使在不确定性，土地所有者一级的激励机制变化以及保护措施的启动和更有效的农业生产模式下也是如此。这些方法为满足当地农民的资金需求提供了一个模型，可加速大规模向低森林砍伐的农村发展过渡。