We develop a quantitative framework for understanding the class of wicked problems that emerge at the intersections of natural, social, and technological complex systems. Wicked problems reflect our incomplete understanding of interdependent global systems and the hyper-risk they pose; such problems escape solutions because they are often ill-defined and thus mis-identified and under-appreciated by problem-solvers and the communities they constitute. Because cross-boundary problems can be dissected from various viewpoints, such diversity can nevertheless contribute confusion to the collective understanding of the problem. We illustrate this paradox by analyzing the development of both topical and scholarly communities within three wicked domains: deforestation, invasive species, and wildlife trade research. Informed by comprehensive bibliometric analysis of both topical and collaboration communities emerging within and around each domain, we identify symptomatic characteristics of wicked uncertainty based upon quantitative assessment of consolidation or diversification of knowledge trajectories representing each domain. We argue that such knowledge trajectories are indicative of the underlying uncertainties of each research domain, which tend to exacerbate the wickedness of the problem itself. Notably, our results indicate that wildlife trade may become a neglected wicked problem due to high uncertainty, research paucity, and delayed knowledge consolidation.

中文翻译：

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以概念和解决方案不确定性为特征的邪恶环境问题的社会和认知维度

我们开发了一个定量框架，用于理解自然，社会和技术复杂系统的交叉点上出现的邪恶问题的类别。邪恶的问题反映了我们对相互依存的全球系统及其构成的高风险的不完全了解；这样的问题逃脱了解决方案，因为它们通常是问题解决者及其所组成的社区定义不清，因而被错误地识别和低估了。由于可以从各种角度分析跨界问题，因此，这种多样性可能会给对问题的集体理解造成混乱。我们通过分析三个邪恶领域内的主题社区和学术社区的发展来说明这种悖论：森林砍伐，入侵物种和野生动植物贸易研究。通过对每个领域内部和周围出现的主题社区和协作社区的全面文献计量分析，我们可以根据对代表每个领域的知识轨迹的合并或多样化的定量评估，确定邪恶的不确定性的症状特征。我们认为，这样的知识轨迹表明每个研究领域的潜在不确定性，这往往会加剧问题本身的邪恶性。值得注意的是，我们的结果表明，由于不确定性高，研究匮乏和知识整合延迟，野生动植物贸易可能成为被忽视的邪恶问题。我们基于对代表每个领域的知识轨迹的巩固或多样化的定量评估，来确定邪恶不确定性的症状特征。我们认为，这样的知识轨迹表明每个研究领域的潜在不确定性，这往往会加剧问题本身的邪恶性。值得注意的是，我们的结果表明，由于不确定性高，研究匮乏和知识整合延迟，野生动植物贸易可能成为被忽视的邪恶问题。我们基于对代表每个领域的知识轨迹的巩固或多样化的定量评估，来确定邪恶不确定性的症状特征。我们认为，这样的知识轨迹表明每个研究领域的潜在不确定性，这往往会加剧问题本身的邪恶性。值得注意的是，我们的结果表明，由于不确定性高，研究匮乏和知识整合延迟，野生动植物贸易可能成为被忽视的邪恶问题。