Economic downturns create uncertainty about a firm's operations and make it disproportionately harder for outside market participants to assess the firm's prospects. We posit that in this environment, management earnings forecasts will be more informative to investors and analysts. Consistent with this prediction, we find larger stock price reactions and analyst forecast revisions to news in management forecasts during downturns. Holding the amount of news in forecasts constant, stock price reactions to management forecasts are also greater than those to analyst forecasts. We also find that relative to analyst forecasts, management forecast accuracy increases during downturns, suggesting that investors justifiably assess management forecasts as more informative. Overall, we document that macroeconomic conditions create time-series variation in the informativeness of different sources of information to outside market participants.

中文翻译：

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经济下滑和管理层盈利预测的信息量

经济衰退给公司的运营带来了不确定性，并使外部市场参与者更难评估公司的前景。我们认为，在这种环境下，管理层盈利预测将为投资者和分析师提供更多信息。与这一预测一致，我们发现在经济低迷时期，管理层预测中的股票价格反应更大，分析师预测对新闻的修正。保持预测中的新闻数量不变，股价对管理层预测的反应也大于对分析师预测的反应。我们还发现，相对于分析师的预测，在经济低迷时期，管理层预测的准确性会提高，这表明投资者有理由将管理层预测评估为提供更多信息。全面的，