Abstract

Changes in temperature extremes in Russia after 1945 are examined, and their effect on power system performance is analyzed. It is indicated that the Unified Power System (UPS) of Russia and all integrated power systems (IPS) presently have a considerable amount of installed and available spare capacities. However, a quarter of the regional power systems suffer a power shortage, and three of seven integrated regional power systems of Russia (Northwest, Center, and South) feature a deficit in the power control range, which is covered by power flows from adjacent power systems (Middle Volga, Urals, and Siberia). Based on the meteorological monitoring results and power industry statistic, the observed change in the extremal climatic characteristics over the past 70 years was calculated. Its effect on the power balance and power system modes was assessed. It has been established that climatic changes that occurred in Russia and manifested themselves in an increase in the air temperature in all seasons in all regions of the country reduce the maximum load increase rate in the winter and raise it in the summer in almost all power systems, thereby contributing to an increase in the reliability of electricity supply. For the summer, a continuous increase in the power demand maxima in combination with an enhancement in the nonuniformity of the daily demand, and, as a result, a greater need for the control range mean an increase in the risk of massive power supply failures. It has been demonstrated that, against this background, a decrease in the output of generating facilities (such as thermal power plants (TPP), hydroelectric power plants (HPP), and nuclear power plants (NPP)) in hot weather and accidents at power facilities lead to the depletion of the available spare power and substantiate the fact that many consumers can be disconnected in the power systems of the South and the Center.

中文翻译：

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气候极端：俄罗斯电力系统的新挑战

摘要

研究了1945年后俄罗斯极端温度的变化，并分析了它们对电力系统性能的影响。据指出，俄罗斯的统一电源系统（UPS）和所有集成电源系统（IPS）目前具有相当数量的已安装和可用备用容量。但是，四分之一的区域电力系统出现电力短缺，俄罗斯的七个综合区域电力系统中的三个（西北，中部和南部）的电力控制范围出现赤字，这被相邻电力的潮流所弥补系统（中伏尔加河，乌拉尔和西伯利亚）。根据气象监测结果和电力行业统计数据，计算了过去70年观测到的极端气候特征变化。评估了其对电源平衡和电源系统模式的影响。已经确定的是，俄罗斯发生的气候变化表现为该国所有地区的所有季节的气温均在升高，从而降低了冬季的最大负荷增加率，并在夏季几乎在所有电力系统中使最高负荷增加率上升。从而有助于提高电力供应的可靠性。在夏季，电力需求最大值的持续增加与日需求的不均匀性的增强相结合，结果，对控制范围的更大需求意味着大量电源故障的风险增加。已经证明，在这种背景下，发电设施（例如火力发电厂（TPP），