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Reliability analysis of an existing slope at a specific site considering rainfall triggering mechanism and its past performance records
Engineering Geology ( IF 7.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-21 , DOI: 10.1016/j.enggeo.2021.106144
Xin Liu , Yu Wang

Accurate estimation of landslide probability or slope failure probability when there is a rainstorm event is crucial for assessment and mitigation of rainfall-induced landslide risk. Slope reliability methods provide a rigorous way of estimating landslide probability based on slope failure mechanism and probability theory. However, it is well recognized in literature that the landslide probability estimated from existing slope reliability analysis methods are often much larger than the observed landslide frequency. To improve accuracy of the slope failure probability, this study proposes a slope reliability analysis method for an existing slope at a specific site, which considers both rainfall triggering mechanism and the slope's performance records during previous rainfall events. It was found that the fact that the slope survived from previous rainfall events could be utilized to effectively reduce uncertainties in soil parameters and might reduce the estimated landslide probability by one to two orders of magnitudes. In addition, the proposed method provides a real-time slope failure probability for a given rainfall event, and the estimated slope failure probability varies as the considered rainfall event evolves with time.



中文翻译:

考虑降雨触发机制及其过去性能记录的特定地点现有边坡的可靠性分析

准确估计暴雨事件时的滑坡概率或边坡破坏概率,对于评估和缓解降雨引起的滑坡风险至关重要。边坡可靠度分析方法基于边坡破坏机理和概率论,提供了一种严格的滑坡概率估计方法。但是,在文献中已充分认识到,根据现有的边坡可靠性分析方法估算出的滑坡概率通常远大于观测到的滑坡频率。为了提高边坡破坏概率的准确性,本研究针对特定地点的现有边坡提出了边坡可靠度分析方法,该方法同时考虑了降雨触发机制和先前降雨事件期间边坡的性能记录。人们发现,利用先前降雨事件幸存下来的边坡这一事实,可以有效地减少土壤参数的不确定性,并且可以将估计的滑坡概率降低一到两个数量级。另外,所提出的方法为给定的降雨事件提供了实时的边坡破坏概率,并且估计的边坡破坏概率随着所考虑的降雨事件随时间变化而变化。

更新日期:2021-04-29
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