This paper proposes a new positioning accuracy reliability analysis method based on the differential kinematics and saddlepoint approximation to evaluate the influence of kinematic parameter uncertainties on the robotic motion. Firstly, considering the reliability analysis instability caused by complex nonlinear limit state function, the reliability model of positioning accuracy is established based on the differential kinematics and error propagation. Subsequently, the parameters of the position error distribution are deduced analytically to combine with the eigen-decomposition to complete the modeling of the cumulant generating function, thereby the kinematic reliability is yielded according to the saddlepoint approximation method. Finally, the comparative analysis of a six degrees of freedom serial industrial robot is conducted and the results of which demonstrate that the proposed method provides a better performance than the existing methods in terms of accuracy and efficiency for kinematic reliability analysis.

提出了一种基于微分运动学和鞍点近似的定位精度可靠性分析方法，以评估运动学参数不确定性对机器人运动的影响。首先，考虑了复杂的非线性极限状态函数引起的可靠性分析不稳定性，基于微分运动学和误差传播建立了定位精度的可靠性模型。随后，通过解析推导位置误差分布的参数，并与特征分解相结合，以完成累积量生成函数的建模，从而根据鞍点近似法得出运动学可靠性。最后，