ABSTRACT

Cost overruns and schedule delays are one of the most common reasons for project failure. Although schedule delays not only result in significant financial implications to project sponsors but also lead to substantial social costs to the public, scant attention has been dedicated to schedule delays [Padalkar, M., & Gopinath, S. (2016). Six decades of project management research: Thematic trends and future opportunities. International Journal of Project Management, 34(7), 1305–1321]. This study therefore investigates the frequency, magnitude, and characteristics of schedule delays occurring during the construction of 113 large public procurements built in the U.S. and the U.K. between 1999 and 2018. Through tests of hypotheses, this study finds that there is a gap between presumptions and reality. Although extensive efforts were made to project controls in the U.S. and the U.K. over the last two decades, this study also finds that project performance has not improved at all from a schedule perspective. In order to address the issue, this study then suggests reference class forecasting to develop more realistic and reliable schedule estimates.

摘要

成本超支和进度延误是项目失败的最常见原因之一。尽管进度延误不仅会对项目发起人造成重大财务影响，还会给公众带来巨大的社会成本，但很少有人关注进度延误 [Padalkar, M., & Gopinath, S. (2016)。六个十年的项目管理研究：主题趋势和未来机会。国际项目管理杂志, 34(7), 1305–1321]。因此，本研究调查了 1999 年至 2018 年间在美国和英国建造的 113 项大型公共采购的建设过程中发生进度延误的频率、幅度和特征。 通过假设检验，本研究发现假设之间存在差距和现实。尽管在过去的 20 年里，美国和英国在项目控制方面做出了大量努力，但本研究还发现，从进度的角度来看，项目绩效根本没有改善。为了解决这个问题，本研究建议参考班级预测，以制定更现实和可靠的时间表估计。